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Explaining the Persistent Effect of Demand Uncertainty on Firm Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Gigout, Timothee
  • Bricongne, Jean-Charles

Abstract

We study the effect of demand uncertainty on firm growth. We use product-level bilateral trade data to build an exogenous firm-level measure of the uncertainty of demand shocks. We match it with exhaustive custom and fiscal data between 1996 and 2013. An increase in uncertainty has a negative and persistent impact on the growth of exposed firms. This suggests a different underlying mechanism from a simple real-option effect. Financially constrained firms experience a much sharper and longer slowdown. Sectoral comovement is also a key factor explaining the persistent effect of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Gigout, Timothee & Bricongne, Jean-Charles, 2019. "Explaining the Persistent Effect of Demand Uncertainty on Firm Growth," MPRA Paper 94228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; demand shock; Firm-level; Dynamics; Heterogeneity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts

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