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Investigating the causal relationship between exchange rate variability and palm oil export: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches

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  • Lee, Kam Weng
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

Exchange rate is seen as an important economic variable that affects Malaysia’s palm oil export, which the policy maker may interfere in order to ensure that it maintains its position as one of the major palm oil exporters in the world. Nevertheless, the lead-lag relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export is unclear. Similarly, it is unclear whether there exists a long run asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the lead-lag relationship between exchange rate variability and palm oil export in Malaysia and whether the relationship between the two is linear symmetric or otherwise. This study employs ARDL, VECM and VDC techniques and further extends the previous research by adopting a recent technique which is Non-linear ARDL (NARDL) by using the data extracted over the period of 2008:1 to 2017:12 from Malaysian Palm Oil Council and DataStream. Based on this study, it is found that exchange rate is the exogenous variable, while palm oil export is the endogenous variable. Further, there exists a long run asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export. Based on such findings, it is important to note that although the exchange rate is the most exogenous variable, policy maker could, to some extent, interfere in the exchange rate regime to manipulate the palm oil export and the policy maker should take into consideration the nonlinear asymmetric relationship between them in designing a suitable policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Kam Weng & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Investigating the causal relationship between exchange rate variability and palm oil export: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 91801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91801
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/91801/2/MPRA_paper_91801.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "The relationship between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 403-434, May.
    3. Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & La Ode Saidi & La Tondi & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2018. "The Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Rice Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 90-94.
    4. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    5. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices, Crude Oil Prices and US Dollar Exchange Rates using Panel Data Econometric Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 851-868.
    6. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu (Sandu) & Bogdan-Narcis Firtescu, 2018. "Exchange Rate Effects on International Commercial Trade Competitiveness," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-11, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kouakou Kouakou, Paul-Alfred, 2020. "Role of trade in natural rubber and palm oil in the composition of GDP in Ivory Coast," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; palm oil export; Malaysia; ARDL; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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