Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Syphilis Cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Aadland, David
  • Finnoff, David

Abstract

Syphilis has re-emerged as a global public health issue. In lesser developed countries, millions of people are contracting the disease, which can be fatal without access to proper treatment. In developed countries, prevalence is much lower but has cycled around endemic levels for decades. The authors of a recent high-profile article in the journal Nature argue that these regular fluctuations in syphilis prevalence are driven primarily by endogenous disease dynamics rather than social or behavioral factors, as often theorized. We explore this hypothesis by extending the classic SIRS epidemiological model to incorporate forward-looking, rational individuals. This economic SIRS model (or E-SIRS) model is consistent with microeconomic fundamentals as it is derived from the behavioral equations of rational individuals. In contrast to the Nature article, the E-SIRS model predicts that human preferences over health and sexual activity are central to the nature of syphilis cycles. We find that low-activity individuals will behave in a manner that significantly dampen the cycles, while high-activity individuals will tend to exacerbate the cycles, a phenomenon we refer to as rational dynamic resonance. The economic SIRS model also provides additional insights into two failed attempts by the U.S. government to eradicate syphilis from the U.S. population.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8722/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29297/
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8722.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8722

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
  3. Kremer, Michael, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-73, May.
  4. Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2001. "The economic control of infectious diseases," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2607, The World Bank.
  5. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1996. "Rational Epidemics and Their Public Control," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 603-24, August.
  6. Jason F. Shogren & Thomas D. Crocker, 1990. "Risk, Self-Protection, and Ex Ante Economic Value," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 90-wp57, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  7. Goldman Steven Marc & Lightwood James, 2002. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, April.
  8. Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2005. "Tax/subsidy policies toward vector-borne infectious diseases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 647-674, April.
  9. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
  10. Ehrlich, Isaac & Becker, Gary S, 1972. "Market Insurance, Self-Insurance, and Self-Protection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(4), pages 623-48, July-Aug..
  11. Auld, M. Christopher, 2003. "Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 361-377, May.
  12. Momota, Akira & Tabata, Ken & Futagami, Koichi, 2005. "Infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1673-1700, October.
  13. Viscusi, W Kip, 1990. "Do Smokers Underestimate Risks?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1253-69, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Syphilis cannot be eradicated
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-12-20 15:52:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 8112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin x.d. Huang, 2013. "The Equilibrium Dynamics of Economic Epidemiology," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00003, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Economic Logic blog

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8722. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.