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Nonparametric Tests For Bias In Estimates And Forecasts

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  • Charles, Coleman

Abstract

Nonparametric tests can be made for bias in estimate and forecast errors without assuming identical and independent distributions. Tests are created for bias in the median and the mean. The test for median bias is a form of the familiar Sign Test for the median. For mean bias, an asymptotically normal test statistic is derived from the mean algebraic percentage error. These statistics are then applied to cross-sectional and time series contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles, Coleman, 1999. "Nonparametric Tests For Bias In Estimates And Forecasts," MPRA Paper 77841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77841
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77841/1/MPRA_paper_77841.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1988. "Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beth Jarosz & John Hofmockel, 2013. "Research Note: What Counts as a House? Comparing 2010 Census Counts and Administrative Records," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(5), pages 753-765, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimates; forecasts; bias; MALPE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

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