IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/58177.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate, Market Size and Human Capital Nexus Foreign Direct Investment – A Bound Testing Approach for Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Chaudhry, Naveed Iqbal
  • Mehmood, Mian Saqib
  • Mehmood, Asif
  • Mujtaba, Bahaudin G.

Abstract

This study investigates the role of exchange rate, market size and human capital for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In this regard, time series data on annual basis has been collected for the period 1985–2010 and an Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests are utilized to determine the stationarity of the variables. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration was applied as all the variables in the model are first level stationary,e.g. I(1). The empirical findings of this study confirm the long run relationship among the variables. However, market size and human capital have strong positive and significant impact – in short- and long-run – for attracting FDI but exchange rate shows negative impact in this regard. The coefficient ECM is negative and significant, which means that it converges towards equilibrium. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were utilized to test the model’s stability and the plots of each test did not cross the lines of critical value, which indicates the stability of the estimated parameters and this model can be used by Pakistan in policy and decision making. For achieving higher economic growth and economies of scale, the country should concentrate on the ingredients of this study so that it could attract more FDI as compared to the other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaudhry, Naveed Iqbal & Mehmood, Mian Saqib & Mehmood, Asif & Mujtaba, Bahaudin G., 2014. "Exchange Rate, Market Size and Human Capital Nexus Foreign Direct Investment – A Bound Testing Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58177
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/58177/1/MPRA_paper_58177.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elizabeth Asiedu, 2004. "Policy Reform and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Absolute Progress but Relative Decline," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 41-48, January.
    2. Recep Kok & Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy, 2009. "Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 105-123, January.
    3. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    4. Mina, Wasseem, 2007. "The location determinants of FDI in the GCC countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 336-348, October.
    5. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Noorbakhsh, Farhad & Paloni, Alberto & Youssef, Ali, 2001. "Human Capital and FDI Inflows to Developing Countries: New Empirical Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1593-1610, September.
    7. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    8. Elizabeth Asiedu, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources, Market Size, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 63-77, January.
    9. Moosa, Imad A. & Cardak, Buly A., 2006. "The determinants of foreign direct investment: An extreme bounds analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-211, April.
    10. Blomström, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 2003. "Human Capital and Inward FDI," EIJS Working Paper Series 167, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    11. Stephen K. Layson, 1983. "Homicide and Deterrence: Another View of the Canadian Time-Series Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 52-73, February.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. Naveed Iqbal Chaudhry & Asif Mehmood & Mian Saqib Mehmood, 2013. "Empirical relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(1), pages 26-41, January.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Khalil Ahmad & A. R. Chaudhary, 2008. "Economic Growth and Its Determinants in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 471-486.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Frenkel, Michael & Funke, Katja & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "A panel analysis of bilateral FDI flows to emerging economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 281-300, September.
    17. Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June.
    18. Laura Resmini, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 665-689, November.
    19. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    20. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12426, December.
    21. Recep Kok & Bernur Acikgoz Ersoy, 2009. "Analyses of FDI determinants in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1/2), pages 105-123, January.
    22. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-113.
    23. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12425 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Blomstrom, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 1997. "How foreign investment affects host countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1745, The World Bank.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    26. Wheeler, David & Mody, Ashoka, 1992. "International investment location decisions : The case of U.S. firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2009. "Public Governance, Health and Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 667-709, August.
    2. Andreia Olival, 2012. "The influence of Doing Business’ institutional variables in Foreign Direct Investment," GEE Papers 0048, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Dec 2012.
    3. Victor, Kidake, 2018. "Infrastructure and Foreign Direct Investment in Kenya: A Time Series Analysis 1980-2015," MPRA Paper 98014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    5. Kamel ABDELLAH & Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2012. "FDI and macroeconomic volatility: A close-up on the source countries," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2012-21, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    6. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Ul Haq Sookia, 2023. "The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on Mauritius foreign direct investment: A sector‐wise analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 208-224, January.
    7. Boateng, Agyenim & Hua, Xiuping & Nisar, Shaista & Wu, Junjie, 2015. "Examining the determinants of inward FDI: Evidence from Norway," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 118-127.
    8. Anwar, Amar Iqbal & Hasse, Rolf & Rabbi, Fazli, 2008. "Location Determinants of Indian Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Multinationals Choose their Investment Destinations?," MPRA Paper 47397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Husam Rjoub & Mehmet Aga & Ahmad Abu Alrub & Murad Bein, 2017. "Financial Reforms and Determinants of FDI: Evidence from Landlocked Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, January.
    10. Akhtaruzzaman, M. & Berg, Nathan & Hajzler, Christopher, 2017. "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 84-107.
    11. Rudra P Pradhan, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in SAARC Countries: An Investigation Using Panel VAR Model," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 3(2), pages 117-126.
    12. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.
    13. Adeel Ahmad DAR & Taj MUHAMMAD & M. Wasif SIDDIQI, 2020. "Bureaucratic Quality and FDI Inflows Nexus: A South Asian Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 149-168, September.
    14. Mina, Wasseem, 2007. "The location determinants of FDI in the GCC countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 336-348, October.
    15. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from New EU Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 52-67, June.
    16. Fathi Ali & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 201-219, April.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Trade Policy Space and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," EconStor Preprints 196149, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Dimitra Mitsi & Constantina Kottaridi, 2022. "Fiscal and non-fiscal institutional context effects and foreign direct investment: empirical evidence in developing countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 72(1-2), pages 11-33, January-J.
    19. Giammanco, Maria Daniela & Gitto, Lara, 2019. "Health expenditure and FDI in Europe," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 255-267.
    20. Makun, Keshmeer Kanewar, 2016. "Direct Foreign Investment and its Determinants: A Case Study - Gli investimenti diretti esteri e loro determinanti : studio di un caso," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(2), pages 151-174.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Market Size; Human Capital; FDI; ARDL; ECM; CUSUM and CUSUMSQ Tests; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:58177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.