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Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002

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Author Info
Arevilca Vasquez, Bismarck Javier
Risso Charquero, Adrian Winston

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Abstract

Theoretical and empirical literature have focused on supply factors when studying economic growth determinants. The present work analyzes demand factors as determinants of the Bolivian economic growth between 1953-2002 using framework introduced by Thirlwall (1979). According to cointegration analysis exports were an important determinant in the Bolivian economic growth for the whole period. In addition, real exchange rate presents a negative relationship respect to the long run growth. Further results show that Bolivian imports are more elastics than exports respect to the GDP, determining a negative impact in trade balance. An hypothesis is that the implemented economic model after 1985 has increased the external constraint of the country causing a process of “deindustrialization”.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5685/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5685.

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Date of creation: 14 Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5685

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Related research
Keywords: Bolivia Growth Thirlwall’s Law Cointegration

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Elliott, Dawn Richards & Rhodd, Rupert, 1999. "Explaining Growth Rate Differences in Highly Indebted Countries: An Extension to Thirlwall and Hussain," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1145-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rainer Schweickert, 2001. "Macroeconomic Constraints on Economic Development and Poverty Reduction: The Case of Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1060, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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