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Restricción de balanza de pagos y vulnerabilidad externa en la argentina de los noventa. Un análisis de caso

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  • Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe
  • Matesanz Gómez, David

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se aplica el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos de Thirlwall a la economía argentina en el periodo 1968-2003 y en subperiodos seleccionados. Los objetivos centrales son dos. En primer lugar, a través de dicho modelo indagar en las causas del lento crecimiento económico en Argentina en dicho periodo y, en segundo lugar, en analizar las causas de la reciente crisis de 2002 a luz de los resultados obtenidos. Mediante técnicas econométricas de cointegración llegamos a la conclusión de que el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos perrmite explicar los objetivos centrales propuestos. In this paper, we applied balance of payments constraint model by Thirlwall to the Argentine economy in 1968-2003 period. Central aims are two: first, to inquiry in the demand causes of the slow economic growth of the Argentine economy in the period and, second, to analyse demand factors of the last and deep crises in 2002. By using cointegration techniques we show that balance of payments constraint model permit us to explain our central goals in this work.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 210.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2005
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:210

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Keywords: restricción de balanza de pagos; modelo de Thirlwall; cointegración;

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  1. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  2. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Kent 1111, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  3. John S. L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, April.
  4. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  5. Pennelope Pacheco-Lopez & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade liberalisation in Mexico: rhetoric and reality," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 141-167.
  6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
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Cited by:
  1. Arevilca Vasquez, Bismarck Javier & Risso Charquero, Adrian Winston, 2007. "Balance of payments constrained growth model: evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002," MPRA Paper 5645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ochoa Jiménez, Diego, 2010. "Crecimiento Económico y Sector Externo en la Economía Ecuatoriana
    [Economic Growth and the External Sector in Ecuador’s Economy]
    ," MPRA Paper 40422, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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