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Restricción de balanza de pagos y vulnerabilidad externa en la argentina de los noventa. Un análisis de caso

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Author Info
Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe
Matesanz Gómez, David

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Abstract

En el presente trabajo se aplica el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos de Thirlwall a la economía argentina en el periodo 1968-2003 y en subperiodos seleccionados. Los objetivos centrales son dos. En primer lugar, a través de dicho modelo indagar en las causas del lento crecimiento económico en Argentina en dicho periodo y, en segundo lugar, en analizar las causas de la reciente crisis de 2002 a luz de los resultados obtenidos. Mediante técnicas econométricas de cointegración llegamos a la conclusión de que el modelo de restricción de balanza de pagos perrmite explicar los objetivos centrales propuestos. In this paper, we applied balance of payments constraint model by Thirlwall to the Argentine economy in 1968-2003 period. Central aims are two: first, to inquiry in the demand causes of the slow economic growth of the Argentine economy in the period and, second, to analyse demand factors of the last and deep crises in 2002. By using cointegration techniques we show that balance of payments constraint model permit us to explain our central goals in this work.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 210.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2005
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:210

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Related research
Keywords: restricción de balanza de pagos modelo de Thirlwall cointegración

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Penelope Pacheco-López & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation in Mexico: Rhetoric and Reality," Studies in Economics 0403, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  2. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
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