Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019


Author Info

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo


This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004, forecasts 2005-2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2005,, the econometrics of violence, terrorism, and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006,, and Scenarios for Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006B, , I claim in this paper that I have formally developed the concept of Sustainable Peace using advanced econometrics. The concept of Sustainable Peace is thus presented to the international academic community, and is based in the construction of a structural econometric model for National murder, and a model for cyclical terrorist murder that have been simultaneously used for designing Scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5655.

as in new window
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2007
Date of revision: 07 Nov 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5655

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page:
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: sustainable peace; scenarios for sustainable peace; scenarios granting sustainable peace; a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; democratic security policy; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; the econometrics of violence; terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dinar, Ariel & Keck, Andrew, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
  4. Levitt Steven & Mauricio Rubio, 2000. "Understanding Crime in Colombia and What Can Be Done About It," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO, FEDESARROLLO 003735, FEDESARROLLO.
  5. Cuddington, John T. & Urzua, Carlos M., 1989. "Trends and cycles in Colombia's real GDP and fiscal deficit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 325-343, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)



This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.