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Balance of payments constrained growth model: evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002

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  • Arevilca Vasquez, Bismarck Javier
  • Risso Charquero, Adrian Winston

Abstract

Theoretical and empirical literature have focused on supply factors when studying economic growth determinants. The present work analyzes demand factors as determinants of the Bolivian economic growth between 1953-2002 using framework introduced by Thirlwall (1979). According to cointegration analysis exports were an important determinant in the Bolivian economic growth for the whole period. In addition, real exchange rate presents a negative relationship respect to the long run growth. Further results show that Bolivian imports are more elastics than exports respect to the GDP, determining a negative impact in trade balance. An hypothesis is that the implemented economic model after 1985 has increased the external constraint of the country causing a process of “deindustrialization”.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5645.

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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5645

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Keywords: Bolivia; Growth; Thirlwall’s Law; Cointegration;

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  3. Dawn Richards Elliott & Rupert Rhodd, 1999. "Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: an extension to Thirlwall and Hussain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1145-1148.
  4. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  5. Rainer Schweickert, 2001. "Macroeconomic Constraints on Economic Development and Poverty Reduction: The Case of Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1060, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  7. Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe & Matesanz Gómez, David, 2005. "Restricción de balanza de pagos y vulnerabilidad externa en la argentina de los noventa. Un análisis de caso," MPRA Paper 210, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  8. Morales, Juan Antonio & Espejo, Justo & Chávez, Gonzalo & la Torre, Gilka & Evia, José Luis, 1992. "Shocks Externos Transitorios y Políticas de Estabilización para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 3/1992, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  9. John S. L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, April.
  10. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  11. Morales, Juan Antonio & Espejo, Justo & Chávez, Gonzalo & la Torre, Gilka & Evia, José Luis, 1992. "Shocks Externos Transitorios y Políticas de Estabilización para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 2/1992, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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