Balance of payments constrained growth model: evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002

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Balance of payments constrained growth model: evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002

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Arevilca Vasquez, Bismarck Javier
Risso Charquero, Adrian Winston

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Bismarck Javier Arevilca Vasquez

Abstract

Theoretical and empirical literature have focused on supply factors when studying economic growth determinants. The present work analyzes demand factors as determinants of the Bolivian economic growth between 1953-2002 using framework introduced by Thirlwall (1979). According to cointegration analysis exports were an important determinant in the Bolivian economic growth for the whole period. In addition, real exchange rate presents a negative relationship respect to the long run growth. Further results show that Bolivian imports are more elastics than exports respect to the GDP, determining a negative impact in trade balance. An hypothesis is that the implemented economic model after 1985 has increased the external constraint of the country causing a process of “deindustrialization”.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5645.

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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5645

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade

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Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rainer Schweickert, 2001. "Macroeconomic Constraints on Economic Development and Poverty Reduction: The Case of Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1060, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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