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Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL Approach and Multivariate Granger Causality

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  • Ageli, Mohammed Moosa

Abstract

The present paper examine the nexus between road traffic accident (RTA) and some relevant variables in Saudi Arabia over the period 1971- 2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model (Pesaran and Shin, 1999) for co-integration in Saudi Arabia, with the co-integration test. Results show that the variables are co-integrated in Saudi Arabia, moreover, the overall Granger causality results present that road traffic accidents, population and GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license are Granger-causes each other in Saudi Arabia. With these findings, we affirm that there is a strong relationship and effect between road traffic accidents and its population, GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license. The findings suggest that the ECTt-1 coefficients are negative signed and statistically significant in all VECMs, implying that there is bi-directional causality between the variables of interest in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ageli, Mohammed Moosa, 2013. "Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL Approach and Multivariate Granger Causality," MPRA Paper 50616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arshad Jamal & Waleed Umer, 2020. "Exploring the Injury Severity Risk Factors in Fatal Crashes with Neural Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Ali, Qamar & Yaseen, Muhammad Rizwan & Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal, 2019. "The causality of road traffic fatalities with its determinants in upper middle income countries: A continent-wide comparison," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 301-312.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Road Traffic Accident; Granger Causality; (ARDL) Model; Co-integration Test; Saudi Arabia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

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