IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/49882.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Bunčák, Tomáš

Abstract

This text presents a study of various models based on jump processes in the context of foreign exchange (FX) rates modeling. Quality of FX rate log-returns fit is assessed for models such as Merton and Kou jump-diffusions, normal inverse Gaussian, variance gamma, and Meixner. The study is illustrated by simulation results that are provided for each of the models considered. Jump models are contrasted to the well-known (continuous) Brownian motion model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bunčák, Tomáš, 2013. "Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling," MPRA Paper 49882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49882
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49882/1/MPRA_paper_49882.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51350/1/MPRA_paper_51350.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Eric Ghysels & Anders Eriksson Lars Forsberg, 2004. "Approximating the probability distribution of functions of random variables: A new approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 503, Econometric Society.
    3. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen & Thomas Busch, 2005. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In The Presence Of Jumps," Working Paper 1187, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    4. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    5. Nekhili, Ramzi & Altay-Salih, Aslihan & Gençay, Ramazan, 2002. "Exploring exchange rate returns at different time horizons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 671-682.
    6. Jiang, George J., 1998. "Jump-diffusion model of exchange rate dynamics : estimation via indirect inference," Research Report 98A40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    8. repec:dgr:rugsom:98a40 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nirei, Makoto & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 110-127, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandun Perera & Winston Buckley & Hongwei Long, 2018. "Market-reaction-adjusted optimal central bank intervention policy in a forex market with jumps," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(1), pages 213-238, March.
    2. Tomáš Bunčák, 2016. "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 527-546.
    3. Tomáš Bunčák, . "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    4. Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "Equity-linked Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits with dollar cost averaging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 408-428.
    5. Ascione, Giacomo & Mehrdoust, Farshid & Orlando, Giuseppe & Samimi, Oldouz, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Options on Heston-CIR Model Under Lévy Process Framework," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 446(C).
    6. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2004. "Time-changed Levy processes and option pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-141, January.
    7. Chan, Tat Lung (Ron), 2019. "Efficient computation of european option prices and their sensitivities with the complex fourier series method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Tim Leung & Marco Santoli, 2014. "Accounting for earnings announcements in the pricing of equity options," Journal of Financial Engineering (JFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 1-46.
    9. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 89-100.
    10. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    11. Liming Feng & Vadim Linetsky, 2008. "Pricing Options in Jump-Diffusion Models: An Extrapolation Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 304-325, April.
    12. Kim, Hyun-Gyoon & Kim, Jeong-Hoon, 2023. "A stochastic-local volatility model with Le´vy jumps for pricing derivatives," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 451(C).
    13. Mark Broadie & Jerome B. Detemple, 2004. "ANNIVERSARY ARTICLE: Option Pricing: Valuation Models and Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1145-1177, September.
    14. Peter Carr & John Crosby, 2010. "A class of Levy process models with almost exact calibration to both barrier and vanilla FX options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 1115-1136.
    15. Jeonggyu Huh, 2018. "Pricing Options with Exponential Levy Neural Network," Papers 1802.06520, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    16. Yun, Jaeho, 2014. "Out-of-sample density forecasts with affine jump diffusion models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 74-87.
    17. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    18. Diego Amaya & Jean-François Bégin & Geneviève Gauthier, 2022. "The Informational Content of High-Frequency Option Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2166-2201, March.
    19. Jose Cruz & Daniel Sevcovic, 2020. "On solutions of a partial integro-differential equation in Bessel potential spaces with applications in option pricing models," Papers 2003.03851, arXiv.org.
    20. Ciprian Necula & Gabriel Drimus & Walter Farkas, 2019. "A general closed form option pricing formula," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-40, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    jump processes; foreign exchange; log-returns fit; stochastic modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.