Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A New Pseudo-Bayesian Model of Investors' Behavior in Financial Crises

Contents:

Author Info

  • Guo, Xu
  • Lam, Kin
  • Wong, Wing-Keung
  • Zhu, Lixing

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis and establish some properties of stock returns and investors' behavior during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery. Our approach provides a quantitative description for investors' representative and conservative heuristics by assuming that the earnings shock of an asset follows a modified random walk model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis on the earnings of a firm. By using this model setup, we first establish some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility. Thereafter, we derive some properties of investors' behavior on the stock price and its volatility during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery. Last, we develop properties to explain some market anomalies, including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42535/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42535.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42535

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian model; Representative and conservative heuristics; Underreaction; Overreaction; Stock price; Stock return; Financial crisis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
  2. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
  3. Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March.
  4. Wong, Wing-Keung & Phoon, Kok Fai & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2008. "Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 204-223, June.
  5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  6. Ma, Chenghu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Stochastic dominance and risk measure: A decision-theoretic foundation for VaR and C-VaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 927-935, December.
  7. Wing-Keung Wong, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance and Mean-Variance Measures of Profit and Loss for Business Planning and Investment," Finance Working Papers 21922, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  8. Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2002. "How Rewarding Is Technical Analysis? Evidence From Singapore Stock Market," Departmental Working Papers wp0216, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  9. Broll, Udo & Wahl, Jack E. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2006. "Elasticity of risk aversion and international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 126-130, July.
  10. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
  12. Thierry Post, 2003. "Empirical Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1905-1932, October.
  13. Dominic Gasbarro & Wing-Keung Wong & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance Analysis of iShares," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0706, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
  14. So, Mike K P & Lam, K & Li, W K, 1998. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 244-53, April.
  15. Wing-Keung Wong & Raymond H. Chan, 2004. "On the Estimation of Cost of Capital and its Reliability," Departmental Working Papers wp0401, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  16. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  17. Slovic, Paul, 1972. "Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision-Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 779-99, September.
  18. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  19. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Huixia Liu & Wing‐Keung Wong, 2011. "Test statistics for prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominances with applications," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 278-303, 07.
  20. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
  21. Egozcue, Martín & García, Luis Fuentes & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zitikis, Ricardas, 2011. "Do investors like to diversify? A study of Markowitz preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 188-193, November.
  22. Egozcue, Martin & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Gains from diversification on convex combinations: A majorization and stochastic dominance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 893-900, February.
  23. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1982. "Learning to be rational," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 340-351, April.
  24. Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
  25. Zhidong Bai & Yongchang Hui & Wing-Keung Wong & Ričardas Zitikis, 2012. "Prospect Performance Evaluation: Making a Case for a Non-asymptotic UMPU Test," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 703-732, September.
  26. Wing-Keung Wong & Chenghu Ma, 2008. "Preferences over location-scale family," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 119-146, October.
  27. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  28. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
  29. Fong, Wai Mun & Wong, Wing Keung & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2005. "International momentum strategies: a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 89-109, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.