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A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction

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Author Info

  • Lam, Kin
  • Liu, Taisheng
  • Wong, Wing-Keung

Abstract

This paper develops a model of weight assignments using a pseudo-Bayesian approach that reflects investors' behavioral biases. In this parsimonious model of investor sentiment, weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks of stock prices. Such weight assignments enable us to provide a quantitative link between some market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases. The seriousness of an anomaly can be quantitatively assessed by investigating into its dependency on weights. New results other than the short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction can be derived and new hypotheses can be formed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 203 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 166-175

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:203:y:2010:i:1:p:166-175

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian model Representative and conservative heuristics Underreaction Overreaction Stock price Stock return;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2012. "Stochastic Dominance Statistics for Risk Averters and Risk Seekers: An Analysis of Stock Preferences for USA and China," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 2012-13, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  2. Leung, Pui-Lam & Ng, Hon-Yip & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 85-95.
  3. Pätäri, Eero & Leivo, Timo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2012. "Enhancement of equity portfolio performance using data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 786-797.
  4. Broll, Udo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wu, Mojia, 2013. "Banking Firm and Two-Moment Decision Making," MPRA Paper 51687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Hua & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The best estimation for high-dimensional Markowitz mean-variance optimization," MPRA Paper 43862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bai, Zhidong & Phoon, Kok Fai & Wang, Keyan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The performance of commodity trading advisors: A mean-variance-ratio test approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 188-201.
  7. Guorui Bian & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-036/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Guo, Xu & Lam, Kin & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2012. "A New Pseudo-Bayesian Model of Investors' Behavior in Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 42535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Fathi Abid & Pui Lam Leung & Mourad Mroua & Wing Keung Wong, 2014. "International Diversification Versus Domestic Diversification: Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 45-66, May.

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