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Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny
[Cycles on the housing and commercial real estate market, risks and the need for appropriate and prudent valuation]

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Author Info

  • Augustyniak, Hanna
  • Łaszek, Jacek
  • Olszewski, Krzysztof
  • Waszczuk, Joanna

Abstract

This article explains why the housing and commercial real estate market are in a permanent disequilibrium. The real estate market converges towards the equilibrium, but it changes due to credit constraints, expectations and the long investment process. The cycles on this market are much more volatile than those of the whole economy. Moreover, the market is very local. Often, one can observe the accumulation of different factors, which lead to herding and speculations and finally result in a crisis. Because the market is strongly financed by banks, problems on the market affect the whole financial system. Thus, an appropriate and prudent valuation of the property is needed, which helps to smooth the demand and also reduces the risk for the investor and the bank.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41070.

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Date of creation: 23 Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41070

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Keywords: Housing market cycles; commercial real estate cycles; disequilibrium; banking sector; regulation;

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  1. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
  2. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198.
  3. E Philip DaviS & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  4. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
  5. Krzysztof Olszewski, 2012. "The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 132, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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