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Debt and nonlinear fiscal policy: evidence from the states

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  • Gray, Jo Anna
  • Stone, Joe A.

Abstract

Evidence from a half century of experience by states identifies nonlinearities in the effects of debt and fiscal policy on growth. Effects are Keynesian for low to moderate levels of debt and stimulus but anti Keynesian for sufficiently high levels of debt or stimulus. Results are broadly consistent with models by Barro (1999), Judd (1987), and others.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39731.

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Date of creation: 06 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39731

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Keywords: debt; fiscal policy; nonlinear; growth; Keynes;

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  1. Bania, Neil & Gray, Jo Anna & Stone, Joe A., 2007. "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 60(2), pages 193-204, June.
  2. Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-91, November.
  3. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke & Richard S. Grossman & Madalina A. Ursu, 2013. "A monthly stock exchange index for Ireland, 1864-1930," Economics Series Working Papers 120, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Judd, Kenneth, 1987. "Debt and distortionary taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 51-72, July.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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