IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/krk/eberjl/v1y2013i4p7-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implementation of Multi-Objective Evaluation Method in Public Debt Risk Management

Author

Listed:
  • Jelena Stankevičienė

    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)

  • Sergej Rosov

    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)

Abstract

The paper is devoted to propose a public debt risk assessment model, which allows predicting country's economic well-being trends. The proposed model evaluates different aspects of public debt-related structural indicators. Introduced debt risk assessment model uses MULTIMOORA multi-objective evaluation method. Study is based on the 2005-2010 European Union macroeconomic structural indicators. The data analysis indicates EU's ability to cope with the increasing level of public debt and predict long term fiscal consequences. Evaluation of research results enables to use multi-objective evaluation method to determine the risk of public debt. A ranking index which shows early warning signs of fiscal indebtedness problems for European Union countries is introduced in the paper. Periodical use of proposed model would help to predict incoming recessions and to implement specific fiscal policies in time to prevent them.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Stankevičienė & Sergej Rosov, 2013. "Implementation of Multi-Objective Evaluation Method in Public Debt Risk Management," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 1(4), pages 7-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:krk:eberjl:v:1:y:2013:i:4:p:7-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eber.uek.krakow.pl/index.php/eber/article/download/24/27
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    2. William R. DiPeitro & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2012. "Government size, public debt and real economic growth: a panel analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 410-419, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    7. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834.
    9. William R. DiPeitro & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2012. "Government size, public debt and real economic growth: a panel analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 410-419, August.
    10. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
    11. Willem K. Brauers, 2004. "Multiobjective optimization (moo) in privatization," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 59-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janice Boucher Breuer & John McDermott, 2019. "Debt And Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 714-730, October.
    2. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    3. Hileman, Garrick, 2012. "The seven mechanisms for achieving sovereign debt sustainability," Economic History Working Papers 42878, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    4. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    5. Udaibir S. Das & Maria A. Oliva & Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Sovereign Risk: A Macro-Financial Perspective," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(3), pages 367-392, August.
    6. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even worse than you thought: The effects of government debt on investment and productivity," EcoMod2012 4200, EcoMod.
    7. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    9. Das, Udaibir S. & Oliva, Maria A. & Tsuda, Takahiro, 2012. "Sovereign Risk: A Macro-Financial Perspective," ADBI Working Papers 383, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    11. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    12. Shaukat, Mughees & Mirakhor, Abbas & Krichene, Noureddine, 2013. "Fragility Of Interest-Based Debt Financing: Is It Worth Sustaining A Regime Uncertainty?," MPRA Paper 56362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    14. Craigwell, Roland & Greenidge, Kevin & Thomas, Chrystal & Drakes, Lisa, 2012. "Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 40936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.
    16. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    17. Carrera, Claudia Martínez & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Debt Valuation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1762-1783.
    18. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Whajah, Jennifer & Bokpin, Godfred A. & Kuttu, Saint, 2019. "Government size, public debt and inclusive growth in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-240.
    20. Vranceanu, Radu, 2012. "The Euro sovereign debt crisis and the built-in instability of the Euro," ESSEC Working Papers WP1211, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; risk; MULTIMOORA; MOORA; structural indicators; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:krk:eberjl:v:1:y:2013:i:4:p:7-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Piotr Stanek, PhD. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aekrapl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.