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Net job creation in the U.S. economy: lessons from monthly data, 1950-2011

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  • Abo-Zaid, Salem

Abstract

In this paper, I study the monthly net job creation (NJC) at the aggregate level in the U.S. over the period 1950-2011. The paper has few important findings. First, NJC did not show a significant trend over the last 6 decades, which resulted in a fall in the NJC rate. Second, NJC is very volatile and it may change course even in the span of one month. Third, there is no clear pattern about the co-movement between NJC and the change in the unemployment rate in the U.S. Fourth, the average of total NJC and private NJC since late 2010 are significantly higher than their respective historical averages and the volatility in NJC since the end of the Great Recession is not unusual by historical standards. Fifth, the size of NJC in the first decade of the 21st century has been the lowest along the entire sample. Finally, the most frequent drop in the unemployment rate is by 0.1 percent, and drops of more than 0.2 percent should not be highly expected.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39084.

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Date of creation: 25 May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39084

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Keywords: U.S. Net Job Creation; U.S. Unemployment Rate; U.S. Labor Force; The Great Recession;

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  1. Emek Basker, 2002. "Job Creation or Destruction? Labor-Market Effects of Wal-Mart Expansion," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of Missouri 0215, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 14 Jan 2004.
  2. Haltiwanger, John & Scarpetta, Stefano & Schweiger, Helena, 2006. "Assessing job flows across countries : the role of industry, firm size, and regulations," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4070, The World Bank.
  3. Alexander Hijzen & Richard Upward & Peter W. Wright, 2010. "Job Creation, Job Destruction and the Role of Small Firms: Firm-Level Evidence for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 621-647, October.
  4. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Ibsen, Rikke & WestergÄrd-Nielsen, Niels C., 2011. "Job Creation by Firms in Denmark," IZA Discussion Papers 5458, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. John C. Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," NBER Working Papers 16300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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