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Latent Markov models: a review of a general framework for the analysis of longitudinal data with covariates

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  • Bartolucci, Francesco
  • Farcomeni, Alessio
  • Pennoni, Fulvia

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process which follows a first-order Markov chain. We first illustrate the more general version of the LM model which includes individual covariates. We then illustrate several constrained versions of the general LM model, which make the model more parsimonious and allow us to consider and test hypotheses of interest. These constraints may be put on the conditional distribution of the response variables given the latent process (measurement model) or on the distribution of the latent process (latent model). For the general version of the model we also illustrate in detail maximum likelihood estimation through the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which may be efficiently implemented by recursions known in the hidden Markov literature. We discuss about the model identifiability and we outline methods for obtaining standard errors for the parameter estimates. We also illustrate methods for selecting the number of states and for path prediction. Finally, we illustrate Bayesian estimation method. Models and related inference are illustrated by the description of relevant socio-economic applications available in the literature.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39023.

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Date of creation: 13 Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39023

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Keywords: EM algorithm; Bayesian framework; Forward-Backward recursions; Hidden Markov models; Measurement errors; Panel data; Unobserved heterogeneity;

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  1. Congdon, Peter, 2006. "Bayesian model choice based on Monte Carlo estimates of posterior model probabilities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 346-357, January.
  2. Francesco Bartolucci & Fulvia Pennoni & Brian Francis, 2007. "A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 115-132.
  3. Antonello Maruotti, 2011. "Mixed Hidden Markov Models for Longitudinal Data: An Overview," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 79(3), pages 427-454, December.
  4. C. P. Robert & T. Rydén & D. M. Titterington, 2000. "Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models through the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 57-75.
  5. Altman, Rachel MacKay, 2007. "Mixed Hidden Markov Models: An Extension of the Hidden Markov Model to the Longitudinal Data Setting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 201-210, March.
  6. Francesco Bartolucci, 2006. "Likelihood inference for a class of latent Markov models under linear hypotheses on the transition probabilities," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 155-178.
  7. Bartolucci, Francesco & Farcomeni, Alessio, 2009. "A Multivariate Extension of the Dynamic Logit Model for Longitudinal Data Based on a Latent Markov Heterogeneity Structure," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(486), pages 816-831.
  8. Luigi Spezia, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of multivariate Gaussian hidden Markov models with an unknown number of regimes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-11, 01.
  9. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  10. Richard McHugh, 1956. "Efficient estimation and local identification in latent class analysis," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 331-347, December.
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