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结婚年龄与婚姻的稳定性:来自断点回归的证据
[Age at marriage and marital stability: evidence from a regression discontinuity design]

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  • Zhang, Chuanchuan

Abstract

Exploiting the exogenous shock of change of marriage law, this paper estimates a quasi-natural experimental effect of age at marriage on marital stability for the first time. A new Marriage Law came into force in Jan. 1, 1981 in China, with new requirement on age at marriage. Using a regression discontinuity design by restricting sample to those married just before and after 1981, this paper finds that probability of divorce increases by age at marriage. One year delay of age at marriage increases the probability of divorce by 3 to 6 percentage points. On the contrary, the results from conventional OLS estimation show that delay of age at marriage either has no effects or has a small positive effect on marital stability, suggesting the OLS estimates suffer from severe omitted variable bias. This study suggests that increase in age at marriage is one important cause of the increase of divorce rates during recent year in China.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38809.

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Date of creation: 25 Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38809

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Keywords: 结婚年龄 离婚率 断点回归;

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  1. Weiss, Yoram & Willis, Robert J, 1997. "Match Quality, New Information, and Marital Dissolution," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S293-329, January.
  2. Rafael Lalive, 2006. "How do Extended Benefits Affect Unemployment Duration? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1765, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Teresa Martin & Larry Bumpass, 1989. "Recent trends in marital disruption," Demography, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 37-51, February.
  4. Matthew E. Kahn & Erin T. Mansur, 2010. "How Do Energy Prices, and Labor and Environmental Regulations Affect Local Manufacturing Employment Dynamics? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 16538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David S. Lee & David Card, 2006. "Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error," NBER Technical Working Papers 0322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511 - 564.
  7. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2009. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," NBER Working Papers 14723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Guido Imbens & Thomas Lemieux, 2007. "Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice," NBER Working Papers 13039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Avraham Y. Ebenstein & Ethan Jennings Sharygin, 2009. "The Consequences of the "Missing Girls" of China," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 23(3), pages 399-425, November.
  10. Lehrer, Evelyn L. & Chen, Yu, 2011. "Women's Age at First Marriage and Marital Instability: Evidence from the 2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 5954, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
  12. Lehrer, Evelyn L., 2006. "Age at Marriage and Marital Instability: Revisiting the Becker-Landes-Michael Hypothesis," IZA Discussion Papers 2166, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Jay Teachman, 2002. "Stability across cohorts in divorce risk factors," Demography, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 331-351, May.
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