Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets
AbstractThis study examines the usefulness of trader-position-based sentiment index for forecasting future prices in six major agricultural futures markets. It has been found that large speculator sentiment forecasts price continuations. In contrast, large hedger sentiment predicts price reversals. Small trader sentiment hardly forecasts future market movements. An investigation was performed into various sentiment-based timing strategies, and it was found that the combination of extreme large trader sentiments provides the strongest timing signal. These results are generally consistent with the hedging-pressure theory, suggesting that hedgers pay risk premiums to transfer nonmarketable risks in futures markets. Moreover, it does not appear that large speculators in the futures markets possess any superior forecasting ability.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36425.
Date of creation: Jan 2000
Date of revision: Sep 2002
Publication status: Published in Journal of Futures Markets 10.21(2002): pp. 929-952
Investor sentiment; agricultural futures markets; return predictability;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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