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Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets

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  • Wang, Changyun

Abstract

This study examines the usefulness of trader-position-based sentiment index for forecasting future prices in six major agricultural futures markets. It has been found that large speculator sentiment forecasts price continuations. In contrast, large hedger sentiment predicts price reversals. Small trader sentiment hardly forecasts future market movements. An investigation was performed into various sentiment-based timing strategies, and it was found that the combination of extreme large trader sentiments provides the strongest timing signal. These results are generally consistent with the hedging-pressure theory, suggesting that hedgers pay risk premiums to transfer nonmarketable risks in futures markets. Moreover, it does not appear that large speculators in the futures markets possess any superior forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Changyun, 2000. "Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets," MPRA Paper 36425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; agricultural futures markets; return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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