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Identificación de ciclos económicos en Bolivia: 1970-2008
[Identification of business cycles in Bolivia: 1970-2008]

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  • Valdivia, Daney
  • Yujra, Paola

Abstract

Study and characterization of business cycles are an important issue in the analysis of empirical regularities in a developing economy. Following standard literature of business cycles, we establish episodes of business cycles in Bolivia. We apply economic and statistical filters to economic series to get the business cycle. Once we get the economic cycle, we apply statistical analysis, volatility and correlations, to characterize the business cycle of fundamental variables for the economy. Important results show pro cyclical movements between macroeconomic variables and GDP. Co-movements of consumption and investment indicate the presence of adaptive and rational expectations. Finally, we present an approximation of natural level of GPD that indicates that the economy should reach a 5% of economic growth in the medium and long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35884.

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Date of creation: Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35884

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Keywords: Business cycles; volatility; co- movement;

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  1. Ravn, Morten O. & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Albert Marcet & Morte O. Ravn, . "The HP-Filter in Cross-Country Comparisons," Studies on the Spanish Economy, FEDEA 100, FEDEA.
  3. Jorge Enrique Restrepo & Claudio Soto, 2004. "Regularidades Empíricas de la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 301, Central Bank of Chile.
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