IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/29668.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Recent Inflation in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Menji, Sisay

Abstract

Inflation has been a rising in Ethiopia during recent years, mainly fueled by food inflation. In the study, an analysis of the determinants of inflation was made using quarterly data during 1997/98 – 2007/08. The research employed Co-integration regression after finding that the variables included in the model were cointegrated. The results from the study depicts that inflation was significantly affected by money supply growth (positively) and domestic output (negatively). Though expected to have a significant effect; fluctuations in the official exchange rate, gas oil price, and budget deficit were found to have an insignificant impact on the inflation rate. Surprisingly though expected to have an insignificant impact, lending rate was found to have a significant impact on the inflation rate. The study concludes with recommendations to avert inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Menji, Sisay, 2008. "Determinants of Recent Inflation in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 29668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29668
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29668/1/MPRA_paper_29668.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hammermann, Felix & Flanagan, Mark, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," Kiel Working Papers 1373, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Mr. Ludvig Söderling & Mr. Domenico Fanizza, 2006. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation: A Primer for the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/216, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Christopher W. Crowe, 2006. "Inflation, Inequality, and Social Conflict," IMF Working Papers 2006/158, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
    5. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
    6. Nii K. Sowa & John K Kwakye & Asaf Adebua, 1993. "Inflationary Trends and control in Ghana," Working Papers 22, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    7. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2003. "Modeling Inflation in Georgia," IMF Working Papers 2003/212, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Mark Zelmer & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Mr. Mark R. Stone & Ms. Alina Carare, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2002/102, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Miss Eva Gutierrez, 2003. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2003/053, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Festus 0. Egwaikhide & Louis N. Chete & Gabriel 0. Falokun, 1994. "Exchange rate depreciation, budget deficit and inflation the Nigerian experience," Working Papers 26, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    11. Mr. Mark J Flanagan & Mr. Felix Hammermann, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," IMF Working Papers 2007/189, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    13. repec:imf:imfeci:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Keith M. Carlson, 1980. "The lag from money to prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 62(Oct), pages 3-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nazima Ellahi, 2017. "The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(64), pages 2-12, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdelkader Aguir, 2018. "Central Bank Credibility, Independence, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(3), pages 91-110.
    2. Dejene Mamo Bekana, 2016. "What Causes Inflation in a Post Communist Economy? Evidence from Ethiopia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 3-46, September.
    3. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    4. Kreiter, Zebulun & Paul, Tapas Kumar, 2010. "Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MPRA Paper 45981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carsten Hefeker, 2010. "Taxation, corruption and the exchange rate regime," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 338-346, March.
    6. Grand Nathalie & Dropsy Vincent, 2005. "Exchange Rate And Inflation Targeting In Morocco And Tunisia," Macroeconomics 0507018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nwaobi, Godwin C, 2009. "Inflation,Unemployment and Nigerian Families: An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 14596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. ‎Eftekhari Mahabadi , Samaneh & Kiaee , Hasan, 2015. "Determinants of Inflation in Selected Countries," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 113-148, January.
    9. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Around the World," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 17-37, November.
    10. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba & Patrick Villieu, 2021. "Inflation targeting adoption and institutional quality: Evidence from developing countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2107-2127, July.
    12. Zafar, Sabahat, 2018. "Fiscal Prerequisites for Inflation Targeting," MPRA Paper 116254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Adam Geršl & Tomáš Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
    14. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    15. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," MPRA Paper 27118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:gei:jnlfer:v:1:y:2016:i:1:p: is not listed on IDEAS
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Romania: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/220, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    20. Novák, Zsuzsanna, 2014. "Monetáris politika, infláció és gazdasági növekedés Kelet-Közép- és Délkelet-Európában [Monetary policy, inflation and economic growth in Central and South Eastern Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 923-942.
    21. Ms. Anita Tuladhar, 2005. "Governance Structures and Decision-Making Roles in Inflation-Targeting Central Banks," IMF Working Papers 2005/183, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Money Supply; Government Expenditure; GDP; Real Interest Rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.