A re-appraisal of the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus
AbstractThe Australian baby bonus offering parents $3,000 on the birth of a new child was announced on May 11 2004. The availability of five years of birth data following the introduction of the baby bonus allows for a more comprehensive analysis of the policy implications than is current in the literature. The focus of this paper is to identify if there is a positive fertility choice response to the introduction of the Australian baby bonus policy and if this response is sustained over time. To do this 19 years of birth and macroeconomic data, beginning 1990, is analysed using an unobservable components model. The results indicate a significant increase in birth numbers ten months following the announcement of the baby bonus, and this overall increase was sustained up to the end of the observed period. A cumulative growth in birth numbers which commenced in January 2006 slows in 2008 and 2009. It is suggested that the initial increase in births, identified in March 2005, is a direct fertility response to the introduction of the policy and that the subsequent change in the growth of birth numbers may be the result of a delayed effect working through a number of channels. It is estimated that approximately 119,000 births are attributable to the baby bonus over the period, at an approximate cost of $39000 per extra child.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27580.
Date of creation: 20 Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Fertility Rate; Time Series; baby bonus;
Other versions of this item:
- Sarah Sinclair & Jonathan Boymal & Ashton De Silva, 2012. "A Re‐Appraisal of the Fertility Response to the Australian Baby Bonus," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 78-87, 06.
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-03 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary S. Becker, 1974.
"A Theory of Social Interactions,"
NBER Working Papers
0042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Gary S & Tomes, Nigel, 1976.
"Child Endowments and the Quantity and Quality of Children,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S143-62, August.
- Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes, 1976. "Child Endowments, and the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 0123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
- Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988.
"An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
- V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, . "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 86-15, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Edith Duclos & Pierre Lefebvre & Philip Merrigan, 2001. "A 'Natural Experiment' on the Economics of Storks: Evidence on the Impact of Differential Family Policy on Fertility Rates in Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 136, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, .
"A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
85-11, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1993.
"Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529, July.
- Hotz, V.J. & Miller, R.A., 1991. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," GSIA Working Papers 1992-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1992. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Working Papers 9202, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Kevin Milligan, 2002.
"Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility,"
NBER Working Papers
8845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
- Leibenstein, Harvey, 1975. "The Economic Theory of Fertility Decline," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Adda, Jérôme & Dustmann, Christian & Stevens, Katrien, 2011.
"The Career Costs of Children,"
IZA Discussion Papers
6201, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Adda, Jérôme & Dustmann, Christian & Stevens, Katrien, 2011. "The Career Costs of Children," Working Papers 2011-13, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Jerome Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2012. "The Career Costs of Children," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/, European University Institute.
- Adda, Jerome & Dustmann, Christian & Stevens, Katrien, 2011. "The Career Costs of Children," CEPR Discussion Papers 8697, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sinclair, Sarah & Boymal, Jonathan & de Silva, Ashton J, 2012. "Is the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus heterogeneous across maternal age? Evidence from Victoria," MPRA Paper 42725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.