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A Long-run Equilibrium Demand Function: Tourism in Mexico

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  • Brida, Juan Gabriel
  • Risso, Wiston Adriàn
  • Carrera, Edgar J. Sanchez

Abstract

Tourism demand in Mexico is around 80 percent represented by USA visitors. The goal of this paper is to explain the long-term effects of Tourism Demand in Mexico with respect to US visitors. To reach our goal the methodology of this paper follows the Johansen cointegration analysis and using annual time-series data, a single equation is estimated. With the empirical analyze, we study the tourism demand elasticities considering public investment, relative prices of tourist products, and US income per capita. Further analysis shows only one direction of a strongly positive Granger-causality going from number of tourists to the relative prices. We show that US income positively affects the Mexican tourism demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25375.

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Date of creation: 10 Sep 2007
Date of revision: 25 Jan 2008
Publication status: Published in TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Refereed Journal of Tourism 1.3(2008): pp. 66-82
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25375

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Related research

Keywords: Tourism demand modelling; Public investment on tourism; Economics of Tourism; Johansen Cointegration test;

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  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics," NBER Working Papers 1162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  4. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1997. "A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 539-549, December.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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