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The Permanent and Transitory Effects on Consumption and Income: Evidence from the Turkish Economy

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  • Bilgili, Faik

Abstract

This paper, using the Turkish data, employs a VAR model to decompose permanent and transitory shocks on consumption and income. Pistoresi (1997), using USA data, reaches an empirical result that the permanent part of private consumption explains the much of the variance of series, whereas that of income explains the less of variance of series. Corugeda, Price and Blake (2007), using the UK data, have the conclusion that permanent shocks are the dominant effects on variances of consumption and income. Data used for this study is obtained from the Turkish Central Bank EDDS and ranges from 1987:1 to 2006:3. The paper first searches the evidence for consumption literature, then, after monitoring the unit root and seasonality analyses, runs impulse responses and variance decompositions through VAR analyses. At the end of this study, one can reach the relative importance of permanent and transitory impacts on private consumption and GDP of the Turkish Economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgili, Faik, 2007. "The Permanent and Transitory Effects on Consumption and Income: Evidence from the Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 24090, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24090
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24593/1/MPRA_paper_24593.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Price, Simon & Blake, Andrew P., 2007. "The dynamics of aggregate UK consumers' non-durable expenditure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 453-469, May.
    3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
    4. Jian Yang & David Bessler & Hung-Gay Fung, 2004. "The informational role of open interest in futures markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 569-573.
    5. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2006. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 217-241, March.
    6. Lise Pichette, 2004. "Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Spring), pages 29-35.
    7. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Housing Wealth and Aggregate Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Lage, Maureen J., 1997. "The permanent income hypothesis under permanent-transitory confusion," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 77-90, February.
    9. Sakarya, Burchan & Yurtoglu, Hasan & Duvan, Berke, 1999. "A Cointegration Analysis of Alternative Core Inflation Measures for Turkey," MPRA Paper 69191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-532, September.
    11. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2007. "Permanent-Transitory Decompositions Under Weak Exogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 183-189, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Faik Bilgili & Hayriye Hilal Ba l ta, 2016. "Testing the Permanent Income and Random Walk Hypotheses for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1371-1378.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent; transitory; VAR; impulse-response functions; variance decomposition; consumption; income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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