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On Some Neglected Implications of the Fisher Effect

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  • Antonio Ribba

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Abstract

Following the lead of Fama [American Economic Review 65 (1975) 269-282] and of other influential papers, such as Mishkin [Journal of Monetary Economics 30 (1992) 195-215], it has become standard to interpret the Fisher effect as the ability of short-term interest rate to predict future inflation. However, in this paper we demonstrate that by restricting to zero the instantaneous response of expected inflation to an interest rate shock, one can identify a disturbance that economic agents, according to the Fisherian framework, should evaluate as transitory. An important implication of this result is that short-term nominal interest rates cannot be interpreted as predictors, at least not long-run predictors, of inflation. We illustrate this result with an empirical application to US postwar data.

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Paper provided by University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics in its series Center for Economic Research (RECent) with number 033.

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Length: pages 21
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mod:recent:033

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Keywords: Fisher Effect; Identification; Structural Cointegrated VARs;

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  1. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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  17. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Leãn-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, 03.
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Cited by:
  1. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2012. "Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 082, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.

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