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Systemic Stability of Housing and Mortgage Market: From the observable to the unobservable

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  • Xiao, Qin
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Abstract

Motivated by the revealed preference approach to consumer theory, this study constructs a dynamic theoretical model which infers the unobservable household behavior from the observable patterns of housing and mortgage market activities. The model emphasizes the role of asymmetric responses of sellers in different phases of a housing market cycle in generating certain price and volume patterns. Such role has so far largely been ignored in both theoretical and empirical studies of housing markets. The model also establishes, theoretically, multiple channels via which housing and mortgage markets interact and via which speculative forces are propagated. In addition, it generates a testable result regarding the stability of the system formed by the two markets, which may be extended by endogenizing some important policy instruments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23708.

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Date of creation: 06 Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23708

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Keywords: systemic stability; speculation; asymmetric seller response; feedback loop;

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  1. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
  3. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
  4. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-occupied housing as a hedge against rent risk," Working Papers 05-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Qin Xiao & Weihong Huang, 2010. "Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 529-543.
  7. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
  8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Qin Xiao, 2010. "Crashes in Real Estate Prices: Causes and Predictability," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(8), pages 1725-1744, July.
  10. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
  11. Brent C Smith, 2004. "Economic Depreciation of Residential Real Estate: Microlevel Space and Time Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 161-180, 03.
  12. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
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