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House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder

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Author Info

  • Banks, James

    ()
    (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London)

  • Blundell, Richard

    ()
    (University College London)

  • Oldfield, Zoë

    ()
    (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London)

  • Smith, James P.

    ()
    (RAND)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder – people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 5173.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5173

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Keywords: downsizing; migration;

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References

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  1. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 50, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  2. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789, May.
  3. François Ortalo-Magné & Antonio Merlo, 2002. "Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence from England," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 02-02, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  4. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2005. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 11534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Louise Sheiner & David N. Weil, 1992. "The Housing Wealth of the Aged," NBER Working Papers 4115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ermisch, John & Pevalin, David J., 2004. "Early childbearing and housing choices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 170-194, September.
  7. Bhatia, Kul B, 1987. "Real Estate Assets and Consumer Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 437-44, May.
  8. Fran�ois Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
  9. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
  10. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
  11. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2004. "Aging and Housing Equity: Another Look," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 127-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-80, October.
  13. Engelhardt, Gary V., 1996. "House prices and home owner saving behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 313-336, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Jappelli, Tullio, 2008. "Do the elderly reduce housing equity? An international comparison," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Olympia Bover, 2010. "Housing purchases and the dynamics of housing wealth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1036, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Andrew Benito, 2007. "Housing equity as a buffer: evidence from UK households," Bank of England working papers 324, Bank of England.
  4. Jonathan Halket, 2009. "Home Ownership, Savings and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 295, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2013. "Online Appendix to "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Technical Appendices 12-89, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  6. M. Deidda, 2013. "Economic hardship, housing cost burden and tenure status: evidence from EU-SILC," Working Paper CRENoS 201323, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  7. Ebner, André, 2013. "A micro view on home equity withdrawal and its determinants: Evidence from Dutch households," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 321-337.
  8. Dröes, Martijn I. & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2013. "House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 92-99.
  9. Jan Rouwendal, 2009. "Housing Wealth and Household Portfolios in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 1-48, March.
  10. Päivi Kankaanranta, 2006. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle: A Selected Literature Review," Discussion Papers 7, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  11. Michael Amior & Jonathan Halket, 2011. "Do Households Use Homeownership To Insure Themselves? Evidence across US Cities," 2011 Meeting Papers 276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. João Ejarque & Søren Leth-Petersen, 2008. "Consumption and Savings of First Time House Owners: How Do They Deal with Adverse Income Shocks?," CAM Working Papers 2008-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
  13. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House prices and rents: micro evidence from a matched dataset in Central London," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 49723, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London_x0003_," ERSA conference papers ersa13p112, European Regional Science Association.
  15. Laura Blow & Lars Nesheim, 2009. "Dynamic housing expenditures and household welfare," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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