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Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments

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  • Benkovskis, Konstantins

Abstract

The main goal of the promotion paper is to forecast Latvia's current account, and using this forecast to define, whether the current account deficit is a significant risk factor for Latvian economy. The modelling of Latvia's current account is made by using econometric methodology, on the base of all the most important theoretical concepts of current account. Although the current account deficit is a risk factor for Latvian economy, it will not cause currency and financial crisis during the time period before Latvia's accession into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The econometric models well describe Latvia's current account and its components. Developed current account models are suitable for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23274/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23274.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23274

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Related research

Keywords: Latvia; current account; forecasting;

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  1. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
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  8. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-14, May.
  9. Sato, Kazuo, 1977. "The Demand Function for Industrial Exports: A Cross-Country Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(4), pages 456-64, November.
  10. Jorgen Drud Hansen & Morten Hansen, 2004. "Are the Current Account Deficits in the Baltic States Sustainable?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 5-24, July.
  11. Claudio Montenegro & A. Senhadji Semlali, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations - A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 98/149, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Vladimir Benacek & Ladislav Prokop & Jan A. Visek, 2003. "Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation," Working Papers 2003/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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