Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments
AbstractThe main goal of the promotion paper is to forecast Latvia's current account, and using this forecast to define, whether the current account deficit is a significant risk factor for Latvian economy. The modelling of Latvia's current account is made by using econometric methodology, on the base of all the most important theoretical concepts of current account. Although the current account deficit is a risk factor for Latvian economy, it will not cause currency and financial crisis during the time period before Latvia's accession into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The econometric models well describe Latvia's current account and its components. Developed current account models are suitable for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23274.
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Latvia; current account; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
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