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Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments

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  • Benkovskis, Konstantins

Abstract

The main goal of the promotion paper is to forecast Latvia's current account, and using this forecast to define, whether the current account deficit is a significant risk factor for Latvian economy. The modelling of Latvia's current account is made by using econometric methodology, on the base of all the most important theoretical concepts of current account. Although the current account deficit is a risk factor for Latvian economy, it will not cause currency and financial crisis during the time period before Latvia's accession into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The econometric models well describe Latvia's current account and its components. Developed current account models are suitable for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23274/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23274.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23274

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Related research

Keywords: Latvia; current account; forecasting;

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References

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. FranÁois J. Gurtner, 2003. "Currency Boards and Debt Traps: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 209-228, 02.
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  8. Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 189, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jorgen Drud Hansen & Morten Hansen, 2004. "Are the Current Account Deficits in the Baltic States Sustainable?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 5-24, July.
  10. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 97/168, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Vladimir Benacek & Ladislav Prokop & Jan A. Visek, 2003. "Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation," Working Papers 2003/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  13. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-14, May.
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