Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments
AbstractThe main goal of the promotion paper is to forecast Latvia's current account, and using this forecast to define, whether the current account deficit is a significant risk factor for Latvian economy. The modelling of Latvia's current account is made by using econometric methodology, on the base of all the most important theoretical concepts of current account. Although the current account deficit is a risk factor for Latvian economy, it will not cause currency and financial crisis during the time period before Latvia's accession into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The econometric models well describe Latvia's current account and its components. Developed current account models are suitable for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23274.
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Latvia; current account; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sebastian Edwards, 2001.
"Does the Current Account Matter?,"
NBER Working Papers
8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- FranÁois J. Gurtner, 2003. "Currency Boards and Debt Traps: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 209-228, 02.
- Claudio Montenegro & A. Senhadji Semlali, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations," IMF Working Papers 98/149, International Monetary Fund.
- Stone, Joe A, 1979. "Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports: Industry Estimates for the U.S., the E.E.C. and Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 306-12, May.
- Warmedinger, Thomas, 2004. "Import prices and pricing-to-market effects in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0299, European Central Bank.
- Sato, Kazuo, 1977. "The Demand Function for Industrial Exports: A Cross-Country Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(4), pages 456-64, November.
- Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey & Eliot R. J. Kalter, 1977. "Export Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 189, International Monetary Fund.
- Jorgen Drud Hansen & Morten Hansen, 2004. "Are the Current Account Deficits in the Baltic States Sustainable?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 5-24, July.
- Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 97/168, International Monetary Fund.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vladimir Benacek & Ladislav Prokop & Jan A. Visek, 2003. "Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation," Working Papers 2003/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-14, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.