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Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri
[Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey]

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  • Bilgin, Cevat
  • Sahbaz, Ahmet

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21985.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision: 2009
Publication status: Published in Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 1.8(2009): pp. 177-198
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21985

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Related research

Keywords: Export-led growth; Johansen co-integration; Granger causality; modified Wald test;

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References

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  1. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
  2. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
  3. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kunst, Robert M & Marin, Dalia, 1989. "On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 699-703, November.
  5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2001. "Time-series evidence for Balassa's export-led growth hypothesis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 355-365.
  6. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
  7. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May.
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