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Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries

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  • Eusuf, M Abu
  • Ahmed, Mansur

Abstract

Strong economic growth accompanied with robust export performance leads many people to conclude that export sector of a country has pivotal role in the economic growth of that country. Empirical evidence on export growth nexus has been mixed and inconclusive. This study examined whether there was any time series support for such export-led growth hypothesis for South Asian Countries. Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to test the Granger causality between export and output. The study had produced fairly mixed results, and did not find any conclusive evidence in favor of export-led growth for South Asian Countries. While Pakistan, Srilanka and Bhutan were the cases of export-led growth, India, Nepal, and Maldives show the opposite result of growth-led exports. In one country, namely Bangladesh, the data had failed to detect any causality in either direction which is attributed in low value addition in export.

Suggested Citation

  • Eusuf, M Abu & Ahmed, Mansur, 2007. "Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 21027, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21027
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    Cited by:

    1. Fatima Subhani & Atif Yaseen & Bashir Ahemd Khan & Anees Ayyub, 2017. "Productivity and Externality Effects of Exports: An Application of FEDER Model in Pakistan and India," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 5(1), pages :36-60, June.
    2. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Neena MALHOTRA & Deepika KUMARI, 2016. "Revisiting Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: An Empirical Study On South Asia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 157-168.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth hypothesis; Granger causality test; Unit Root Tests; Error Correction Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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