Úttekt á efnahagsspám Þjóðhagsstofnunar fyrir árin 1981-2002
[The accuracy of the National Economic Institute‘s forecasts 1981-2002]
AbstractThe National Economic Institute in Iceland was a government institute responsible for producing and publishing a national economic forecast. The institute was closed in 2002. This paper measures the accuracy of the institute's forecasts from 1981-2002. The paper measures the accuracy of the GDP forecast, private consumption, investment, imports and exports of goods and services.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18257.
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Economic forecast; forecast error; root mean square error;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
- Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou, 2000. "A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 274, OECD Publishing.
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