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Learning to be Biased

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Author Info
Ch'ng , kean Siang
Zaharim, Norzarina

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Abstract

We simulate societal opinion dynamics when there is confirmation bias in information gathering and spread. If decision making is influenced by confirmation bias, the agent puts more weight on positive information to confirm hypothesis or reservation in the learning process, which renders selectivity in information gathering. If the utility discovered post purchase is low, it is externalized rather than internalized (i.e., self blame) for the selectivity of information. This causes the agent to outweigh the negative information. These two mechanisms are simulated to investigate the societal opinion dynamics and explain behavioral patterns such as overconfidence, stickiness of response and ``success breeds success" phenomenon.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14362.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14362

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Related research
Keywords: Confirmation bias; Opinion percolation and convergence; Selectivity in information search; Hypothesis testing;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques
D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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  1. Rainer Hegselmann & Ulrich Krause, 2002. "Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-61, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.

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