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Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation

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  • Rainer Hegselmann

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  • Ulrich Krause

    ()

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    Abstract

    When does opinion formation within an interacting group lead to consensus, polarization or fragmentation? The article investigates various models for the dynamics of continuous opinions by analytical methods as well as by computer simulations. Section 2 develops within a unified framework the classical model of consensus formation, the variant of this model due to Friedkin and Johnsen, a time-dependent version and a nonlinear version with bounded confidence of the agents. Section 3 presents for all these models major analytical results. Section 4 gives an extensive exploration of the nonlinear model with bounded confidence by a series of computer simulations. An appendix supplies needed mathematical definitions, tools, and theorems.

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    File URL: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/5/3/2/2.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation in its journal Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 2

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    Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2002-5-2

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    Related research

    Keywords: opinion dynamics; consensus/dissent; bounded confidence; nonlinear dynamical systems.;

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    Cited by:
    1. Belinda Diaz & Thomas Fent & Alexia Prskawetz & Laura Bernardi, 2011. "Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 559-579, May.
    2. Deffuant, Guillaume & Huet, Sylvie, 2007. "Propagation effects of filtering incongruent information," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 816-825, August.
    3. Boudin, Laurent & Mercier, Aurore & Salvarani, Francesco, 2012. "Conciliatory and contradictory dynamics in opinion formation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5672-5684.
    4. Liu, Qipeng & Wang, Xiaofan, 2013. "Social learning with bounded confidence and heterogeneous agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(10), pages 2368-2374.
    5. Deng, Lei & Liu, Yun & Xiong, Fei, 2013. "An opinion diffusion model with clustered early adopters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3546-3554.
    6. Jalili, Mahdi, 2013. "Social power and opinion formation in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 959-966.
    7. Blanco, Iván, 2005. "The silence that precedes hypocrisy: a formal model of the spiral of silence theory," MPRA Paper 45452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ch'ng, Kean Siang & Zaharim, Norzarina, 2009. "Learning to be Biased," MPRA Paper 14362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Melatagia Yonta, Paulin & Ndoundam, René, 2009. "Opinion dynamics using majority functions," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 223-244, March.
    10. Martins, André C.R. & Pereira, Carlos de B. & Vicente, Renato, 2009. "An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3225-3232.
    11. C.R. Martins, André, 2014. "Discrete opinion models as a limit case of the CODA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 352-357.
    12. Pan, Zhengzheng, 2010. "Trust, influence, and convergence of behavior in social networks," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 69-78, July.
    13. Pietro Battiston & Luca Stanca, 2014. "Boundedly Rational Opinion Dynamics in Directed Social Networks: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 267, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2014.
    14. Si, Xia-Meng & Liu, Yun & Xiong, Fei & Zhang, Yan-Chao & Ding, Fei & Cheng, Hui, 2010. "Effects of selective attention on continuous opinions and discrete decisions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3711-3719.
    15. Britz, Wolfgang & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 2, August.
    16. Verma, Gunjan & Swami, Ananthram & Chan, Kevin, 2014. "The impact of competing zealots on opinion dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 310-331.
    17. Martin Neumann & Andreas Braun & Eva-Maria Heinke & Mehdi Saqalli & Armano Srbljinovic, 2011. "Challenges in Modelling Social Conflicts: Grappling with Polysemy," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 14(3), pages 9.
    18. Ziervogel, Gina & Bithell, Mike & Washington, Richard & Downing, Tom, 2005. "Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-26, January.
    19. Kurmyshev, Evguenii & Juárez, Héctor A. & González-Silva, Ricardo A., 2011. "Dynamics of bounded confidence opinion in heterogeneous social networks: Concord against partial antagonism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(16), pages 2945-2955.
    20. Gazon, Jules, 2008. "Collective opinion formation of individuals socially embedded in a power structure," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 108-137, February.
    21. Shin, J.K., 2010. "Tipping news in information accumulation system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(10), pages 2118-2126.
    22. Balankin, Alexander S. & Martínez Cruz, Miguel Ángel & Martínez, Alfredo Trejo, 2011. "Effect of initial concentration and spatial heterogeneity of active agent distribution on opinion dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3876-3887.
    23. Andreas Koulouris & Ioannis Katerelos & Theodore Tsekeris, 2013. "Multi-Equilibria Regulation Agent-Based Model of Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 11(1), pages 51-70.
    24. Ding, Fei & Liu, Yun & Shen, Bo & Si, Xia-Meng, 2010. "An evolutionary game theory model of binary opinion formation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(8), pages 1745-1752.

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