Point and interval forecasting of wholesale electricity prices: Evidence from the Nord Pool market
Abstract
In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the Nord Pool electricity spot market. We evaluate the accuracy of both point and interval predictions; the latter are specifically important for risk management purposes where one is more interested in predicting intervals for future price movements than simply point estimates. We find evidence that non-linear regime-switching models outperform their linear counterparts and that the interval forecasts of all models are overestimated in the relatively non-volatile periods.Download Info
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1363.Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1363
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Related research
Keywords: Wholesale electricity price; Point forecast; Interval forecast; AR model; Threshold AR model;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-01-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ENE-2007-01-14 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-01-14 (Forecasting)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adam Misiorek & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 2.
- Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997.
"How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
97-45, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-080, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," NBER Working Papers 6844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2006. "Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
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