Point and interval forecasting of wholesale electricity prices: Evidence from the Nord Pool market
AbstractIn this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the Nord Pool electricity spot market. We evaluate the accuracy of both point and interval predictions; the latter are specifically important for risk management purposes where one is more interested in predicting intervals for future price movements than simply point estimates. We find evidence that non-linear regime-switching models outperform their linear counterparts and that the interval forecasts of all models are overestimated in the relatively non-volatile periods.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1363.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Wholesale electricity price; Point forecast; Interval forecast; AR model; Threshold AR model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-01-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ENE-2007-01-14 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-01-14 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
98-080, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
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- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2006. "Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
- Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
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