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A model of adjustment and growth: An empirical analysis

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  • Reinhart, Carmen

Abstract

the simplicity that makes a model more tractable from an operational standpoint may have several drawbacks as a result of the necessarily restrictive assumptions it employs. This paper assesses the empirically the trade-off between its simplifying assumptions and its ability to fit reality. This trade-off can be assessed by applying the model to a variety of countries. For each country, the following questions are asked: (1) Are the key parameters of the model stable? (2) How sensitive are the policy multipliers to these parameter estimates-that is, how robust are the policy implications? and (3) Are some target variables more vulnerable to forecast errors than others? This paper examines these three questions for a diverse sample of seven capital importing developing countries and attempts to reach some conclusions about the usefulness of the model to help in designing policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13233.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13233

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Keywords: IMF program money demand growth balance of payments;

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References

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  1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  2. Mohsin S. Khan & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Growth-Oriented Adjustment Programs: A Conceptual Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 279-306, June.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Khan, Mohsin, 1989. "Private investment and economic growth in developing countries," MPRA Paper 13655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August.
  5. Khan, Mohsin S. & Montiel, Peter & Haque, Nadeem U., 1990. "Adjustment with growth : Relating the analytical approaches of the IMF and the World Bank," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-179, January.
  6. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
  7. Nicola Rossi, 1988. "Government Spending, the Real Interest Rate, and the Behavior of Liquidity-Constrained Consumers in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 104-140, March.
  8. Robinson, Sherman, 1971. "Sources of Growth in Less Developed Countries: A Cross-Section Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 391-408, August.
  9. Khan, Mohsin S, 1987. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Developing Countries: A Policy Perspective," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 23-42, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Q. Farooq Akram, 2010. "Policy analysis in real time using IMF's monetary model," Working Paper 2010/10, Norges Bank.
  2. Evia, José Luis, 1996. "Política Fiscal e Inversión Privada en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 6/1992, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen, 1990. "“A Model of Adjustment and Growth," MPRA Paper 8145, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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