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Stochastic Dominance Approach to Evaluate Optimism Bias in Truck Toll Forecasts

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  • Sen Gupta, Rajorshi
  • Vadali, Sharada R

Abstract

Optimism bias is a consistent feature associated with truck toll forecasts, à la Standard & Poor’s and the NCHRP synthesis reports. Given the persistent problem, two major sources of this bias are explored. In particular, the ignorance of operating cost as a demand-side factor and lack of attention to user heterogeneity are found to contribute to this bias. To address it, stochastic dominance analysis is used to assess the risk associated with toll revenue forecasts. For a hypothetical corridor, it is shown that ignorance of operating cost savings can lead to upward bias in the threshold value of time distribution. Furthermore, dominance analysis demonstrates that there is greater risk associated with the revenue forecast when demand heterogeneity is factored in. The approach presented can be generally applied to all toll forecasts and is not restricted to trucks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12891.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision: 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12891

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Related research

Keywords: Forecast Bias; Operating costs; Risk assessment; Savings; Stochastic Dominance; Tolls; Trucks;

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  1. Yang, Hai & Tang, Wilson H. & Man Cheung, Wing & Meng, Qiang, 2002. "Profitability and welfare gain of private toll roads in a network with heterogeneous users," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 537-554, July.
  2. Hensher, David A. & Goodwin, Phil, 2004. "Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 171-181, April.
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