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Macroeconomic Volatility, Private Investment, Growth, and Poverty in Nigeria

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  • Addison, Douglas
  • Wodon, Quentin

Abstract

At the time when this paper was written, the latest nationally representative survey implemented in Nigeria dated back to 1996, and the available estimations suggested that two thirds of the population was poor. This high level of poverty was due in large part to macroeconomic volatility that depressed private investment and growth. Using cross-sectional data for 87 countries, we show that real per-capita growth over the period 1980–1994 was a function of productivity growth and investment rates, both of which were negatively effected by volatility (in terms of trade, real exchange rate, and public investments). When comparing Nigeria to high growth nations, we find that most of the growth differential can be attributed to Nigeria’s higher macroeconomic volatility. Simulations suggest that if Nigeria had had lower levels of volatility and better macroeconomic policies, poverty would have been much lower than observed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11113.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11113

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Keywords: Poverty; Volatility; Growth; Investment;

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References

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  1. Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe & Tokunbo Simbowale Osinubi, 2004. "Poverty reduction Policies and Pro-Poor Growth in Nigeria," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 6(1), February.
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  4. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1996. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:9:y:2003:i:1:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. William Easterly & Sergio Rebelo, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Paul Makdissi & Quentin Wodon, 2003. "Risk-adjusted measures of wage inequality and safety nets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10.
  9. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  10. Deb, Partha & Sefton, Martin, 1996. "The distribution of a Lagrange multiplier test of normality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 123-130, May.
  11. Paul Cashin & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2000. "Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa," IMF Working Papers 00/72, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
  13. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  14. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  15. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in West Africa: A Brief Overview," MPRA Paper 11086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  3. Amber, Fatima & Muhammad, Shahbaz & Faridul, Islam, 2012. "Nexus of trade, investment and poverty: evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 39068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 May 2012.

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