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International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

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Listed:
  • Aslan, Alper
  • Kaplan, Muhittin
  • Kula, Ferit

Abstract

Empirical studies on tourism field for Turkey have illustrated little attention in modelling properly the demand function for tourism and identifying the main basis of tourism flows. The majority of studies take into consideration the demand side determinants of tourism, usually proxies by income and price measurements, and little attention has been given to the supply factors, which might influence substantially the tourism performance. Factors such as infrastructures in networks and accommodation capacity in the hosting country have been ignored in such studies. Taking into accounts these facts, in this paper, a dynamic model is used to estimate the demand function of tourism in Turkey with respect to its nine major clients, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, Holland, France, Austria, Iran, Bulgaria and Ukraine, for a period of 10 years (1995-2004) by using the GMM-DIFF estimator proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). One of the main conclusions of the study is the significant value of the lagged dependent variable (0.28), which may be interpreted as a minor word-of-mouth effect on the consumer decision in favour of the destination.

Suggested Citation

  • Aslan, Alper & Kaplan, Muhittin & Kula, Ferit, 2008. "International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 10601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    4. Andreas Papatheodorou, 1999. "The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 619-630.
    5. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    6. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Özcan Ceyhun Can & Uçak Harun, 2016. "Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach," Czech Journal of Tourism, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 59-72, December.
    2. José Antonio Camuñez & Maria P Pablo-Romero & Javier Sánchez-Rivas, 2018. "Tourism capital," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 889-900, November.
    3. Deluna, Roperto Jr & Jeon, Narae, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Abbott, Andrew & De Vita, Glauco & Altinay, Levent, 2012. "Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 537-544.
    5. , & Ismail, Normaz Wana & Kaliappan, Shivee, 2013. "Determinants of International Tourism in Malaysia: Evidence from Gravity Model," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 47(1), pages 131-138.
    6. Karma Emiljan, 2023. "Patriotic Tourism Demand in Albania: A System GMM Model Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 18(2), pages 186-196, December.
    7. Karen Jackson, 2011. "Reconsidering the Silk Road: Tourism in the Context of Regionalism and Trade Patterns," Chapters, in: Samuel Cameron (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Leisure, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism Demand; GMM-DIFF; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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