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International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

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  • Aslan, Alper
  • Kaplan, Muhittin
  • Kula, Ferit

Abstract

Empirical studies on tourism field for Turkey have illustrated little attention in modelling properly the demand function for tourism and identifying the main basis of tourism flows. The majority of studies take into consideration the demand side determinants of tourism, usually proxies by income and price measurements, and little attention has been given to the supply factors, which might influence substantially the tourism performance. Factors such as infrastructures in networks and accommodation capacity in the hosting country have been ignored in such studies. Taking into accounts these facts, in this paper, a dynamic model is used to estimate the demand function of tourism in Turkey with respect to its nine major clients, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, Holland, France, Austria, Iran, Bulgaria and Ukraine, for a period of 10 years (1995-2004) by using the GMM-DIFF estimator proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). One of the main conclusions of the study is the significant value of the lagged dependent variable (0.28), which may be interpreted as a minor word-of-mouth effect on the consumer decision in favour of the destination.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10601.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10601

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Keywords: Tourism Demand; GMM-DIFF; Turkey;

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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  2. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
  3. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
  4. Andreas Papatheodorou, 1999. "The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 619-630.
  5. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
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Cited by:
  1. Deluna, Roperto Jr & Jeon, Narae, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism Demand for the Philippines: An Augmented Gravity Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55294, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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