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Asean-5+3 And Us Stock Markets Interdependence Before, During And After Asian Financial Crisis

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  • Royfaizal, R. C
  • Lee, C
  • Mohamed, Azali

Abstract

The issues of international stock markets linkages had been investigated over the time. Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, many economists are concerned about the relationship between Asian stock markets and others in the world. This paper is conducted to examine the linkages between ASEAN-5+3 namely Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Japan and Korea and US stock markets. The data consists of weekly stock indices data. The total samples are separated into three subperiods. First period is pre-crisis period spanning from January 1990 to June 1997. Second period is during-crisis period spanning from July 1997 to June 1998. Third period is post-crisis period spanning from July 1998 to May 2007. All the indices applied are expressed in local currencies. The empirical analysis begins with testing the stationarity properties of the data. All the countries are found to be stationary at first difference except for Japan for pre-crisis period. Next, cointegration test is employed to test the long-run stationary relationship among the stock markets. The number of significant cointegrating vector is higher during-crisis compare to other periods whereas the same number of cointegrating vector is found before and after crisis. Granger-causality based on VECM showed that Thailand is exogenous whereby Malaysia is the most endogenous at before and during the crisis. After the crisis, US become dominant compare to the other countries. In conclusion, we found that ASEAN- 5+3 and US stock markets are interdependence during crisis and post-crisis periods and the impact of US stock market is effective in ASEAN-5+3 stock markets only for pre and during-crisis periods

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10263.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10263

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Keywords: Stock markets; Cointegration; Granger-causality; ASEAN;

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References

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Click, Reid W. & Plummer, Michael G., 2005. "Stock market integration in ASEAN after the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 5-28, February.
  3. Sheng, Hsiao-Ching & Tu, Anthony H., 2000. "A study of cointegration and variance decomposition among national equity indices before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 345-365, December.
  4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
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  7. Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian M., 2004. "International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 571-583.
  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  9. Phengpis, Chanwit & Apilado, Vince P., 2004. "Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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