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How far India has gone down the road towards financial integration with US since subprime crisis? An Econometric Analysis

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  • Saha, Malayendu
  • Bhunia, Amalendu

Abstract

The present paper aims to study the causal relationship between the US and Indian equity markets using Johansen’s cointegration and variance decomposition analyses. Since the opening up of the economy and subsequent economic and political reforms, India has made tremendous strides in the global equity markets and also been impinged on by the recent happenings. Eviews 7 package program has been used for arranging the data and conducting econometric analyses. The ADF test shows that the time series data used for the study are stationary and integrated of order one. The Johansen’s co-integration test reveals that there exists long run equilibrium relation between the selected variables. The Granger causality test in the vector error correction model suggests the evidence of feedback causality running between the six stock exchanges. However, there is no dependence of any of the individual exchange over the other.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38731.

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Date of creation: 29 Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38731

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Keywords: Stock Market Integration; India; United States; Johansen’s Cointegration Analysis; Vector Error Correction Model; Variance Decomposition Analysis;

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  1. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2010. "Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 304-313, June.
  2. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  4. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  5. Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian M., 2004. "International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 571-583.
  6. Wing-Keung Wong & Aman Agarwal & Jun Du, 2005. "Financial Integration for India Stock Market, a Fractional Cointegration Approach," Departmental Working Papers wp0501, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  7. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
  8. Korhonen, Iikka & Fidrmuc , Jarko, 2009. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  10. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  11. Heng Chen & Bento J. Lobo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2006. "Links between the Indian, U.S. and Chinese Stock Markets," Departmental Working Papers wp0602, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  12. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  14. Chittedi, Krishna Reddy, 2009. "Global Stock Markets Development and Integration: with Special Reference to BRIC Countries," MPRA Paper 18602, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2009.
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