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Convergence and Stability in US Regional Employment

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  • Andrew Glyn
  • Robert Rowthorn

Abstract

It is widely believed that regional labour markets in the USA are highly flexible, so that employment shocks have only transitory effects on joblessness since induced migration quickly offsets much of the initial impact. However time-series analysis of the response to shocks is very sensitive to errors of measurement in labour market data, and such errors are large in some widely used series which depend on household surveys of limited size. Adjusting for the likelihood magnitude of such errors with some novel statistical approaches, and using a range of data sources, we show that the responsiveness of employment rates to shocks has been rather weak in the USA over the past 30 years, though probably stronger in the 1950s and 1960s. This suggests that flexible regional adjustment is not a major factor behind the contemporary success of monetary union in the USA.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 92.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:92

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Related research

Keywords: regional employment; convergence; measurement errors; regional adjustment;

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  1. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobjin & Aysegül Sahin, 2010. "The labor market in the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1315, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  3. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2012. "The NRU and the Evolution of Regional Disparities in Spanish Unemployment," ERSA conference papers ersa12p640, European Regional Science Association.
  5. David McArthur & Inge Thorsen, 2011. "Determinants of internal migration in Norway," ERSA conference papers ersa10p532, European Regional Science Association.
  6. James R. Hines Jr., 2010. "State Fiscal Policies and Transitory Income Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 313-350.
  7. Falko Juessen & Christian Bayer, 2005. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," ERSA conference papers ersa05p410, European Regional Science Association.
  8. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2010. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Working Papers 666, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  9. Partridge, Mark & Betz, Mike, 2012. "Country Road Take Me Home: Migration Patterns in the Appalachia America and Place-Based Policy," MPRA Paper 38293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. David Philip Mcarthur & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2010. "A Micro-Simulation Approach to Modelling Spatial Unemployment Disparities," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 41(3), pages 374-402.
  11. George J. Borjas, 2005. "Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration," NBER Working Papers 11610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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