Optimal Oil Extraction as a multiple Real Option
AbstractWe study optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option appraoch. Extracting a barrel of oil is similar to exercising a call option and optimal strategies lead to deferring production when oil prices are low and when volatility is high. We sow that, in theory, the net present alue ofa country's oil reserves is increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production decisions are made conditional on oil prices. We also show that the marginal value ofaditional capacity is higher for countries with bigger resources and longer production horizons. We apply the model to Brazil and the U>A>E> in order to pin down two points of the global supply curve.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 064.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Oil production; Real Options; Capacity Expansion; Stochastic Optimization;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2011-10-09 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2011-10-09 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Davis, Graham A., 1996. "Real options: Managerial flexibility and strategy in resource allocation : Lenos Trigeorgis The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1996, xiii + 427 pp. (hardcover), ISBN 0-262-20102-X," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 218-220, September.
- Olivier Aj Bardou & Sandrine Bouthemy & Gilles Pag\`es, 2007. "Optimal quantization for the pricing of swing options," Papers 0705.2110, arXiv.org.
- Paddock, James L & Siegel, Daniel R & Smith, James L, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508, August.
- L. C. G. Rogers, 2002. "Monte Carlo valuation of American options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 271-286.
- Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
- Nikolay Aleksandrov & Raphael Espinoza & Lajos Gyurko, 2012.
"Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil,"
OxCarre Working Papers
092, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
- Aleksandrov, Nikolay & Espinoza, Raphael & Gyurkó, Lajos, 2013. "Optimal oil production and the world supply of oil," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1248-1263.
- Nikolay Aleksandrov & lajos Gyurko & Raphael A. Espinoza, 2012. "Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil," IMF Working Papers 12/294, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Celia Kingham).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.