IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/opa/wpaper/0033.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Bilateral Agricultural Trade in Visegrad Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jana Šimáková

    (Department of Finance and Accounting, School of Business Administration, Silesian University)

Abstract

This paper examines short-term and long-term effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral agricultural foreign trade in the Visegrad countries. Johansen cointegration test is employed to analyze the long-term relationship and VEC model to explore the short-term effects of exchange rate. Dataset covers period 1999 - 2014. Agricultural product groups are based on the SITC classification. Results show only some agricultural sectors significantly connected with exchange rate movements in the long-term. Effects of currency depreciation are ambiguous and cannot be generalized across the analyzed product categories but increasing in particular trade balances after currency depreciation dominates its decreasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jana Šimáková, 2016. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Bilateral Agricultural Trade in Visegrad Countries," Working Papers 0033, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:opa:wpaper:0033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://iivopf.cz/images/Working_papers/WPIEBRS2016/WPIEBRS_33_Simakova.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Cointegration Approach to Estimating Bilateral Trade Elasticities Between U.S. and Her Trading Partners," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 119-128.
    2. Bradshaw, Girard W. & Orden, David, 1990. "Granger Causality From The Exchange Rate To Agricultural Prices And Export Sales," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, July.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    4. Gupta-Kapoor Anju & Ramakrishnan Uma, 1999. "Is There A J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 71-79.
    5. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    6. Felmingham, Bruce S, 1988. "Where Is the Australian J-Curve?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 43-56, January.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty, 2011. "The J-curve and NAFTA: evidence from commodity trade between the US and Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(13), pages 1579-1593.
    9. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    10. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 777-799, December.
    11. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for six selected new EU countries," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 76-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jana Šimáková & Daniel Stavárek, 2015. "The Effect of the Exchange Rate on Industry-Level Trade Flows in Czechia," Working Papers 0001, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    2. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    3. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    6. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
    7. Dan Lupu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Trade: J-curve in European Union," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 136-145, June.
    8. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Somchith Souksavath & Sengchanh Chanthasene, 2018. "Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 590-603, June.
    9. Jana Šimáková, 2014. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance of Slovakia," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 50-66.
    10. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 213-228, October.
    11. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    12. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nektarios A. Michail, 2018. "Estimating a Bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 757-769, December.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Brazil--US commodity trade and the J-Curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-13, January.
    15. M. Ege Yazgan & Serda Selin Ozturk, 2019. "Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Trade: Does the J-curve Effect Really Hold?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 343-373, April.
    16. Şerife ÖZŞAHİN, 2017. "An examination of bilateral J-curve: Evidence from Turkey and her 20 major trading partners," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 221-236, Summer.
    17. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kanitpong, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balances of Asian countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4668-4678, October.
    19. Ayşen SİVRİKAYA & Serdar ONGAN, 2019. "BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(40).
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda & Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; agricultural sector; trade balance; cointegration; Visegrad;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:opa:wpaper:0033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: David Jančar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/opfslcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.