Preference for Randomization and Ambiguity Aversion
AbstractRaiffa (1961) criticizes ambiguity-averse preferences by claiming that hedging is possible with randomization of choices. We argue that the timing of randomization is crucial for hedging. Ex-ante randomizations, which are randomizations before a state is realized, could provide only ex-ante hedging but not ex-post hedging, in contrast to ex-post randomizations, which are randomizations after a state is realized. However, these two randomizations have been assumed to be indifferent under the reversal of order axiom proposed by Anscombe and Aumann (1963). We, therefore, propose a weaker axiom, the indifference axiom, which allows heterogeneous attitudes toward the timing of randomization. By using this new axiom as well as standard axioms, we provide an extension of Gilboa and Schmeidler’s (1989) Maxmin preferences that treats a preference for ex-ante randomizations separately from a preference for ex-post randomizations. In the representation, a single parameter characterizes a preference for ex-ante randomizations. By parsimoniously changing only the value of that single parameter, the representation can be consistent with Raiffa’s (1961) normative argument as well as recent experimental evidence. JEL Classification Numbers: D81, D03
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science in its series Discussion Papers with number 1524.
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science, Northwestern University, 580 Jacobs Center, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208-2014
Web page: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-MIC-2011-11-21 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-UPT-2011-11-21 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nadja Dwenger & Dorothea Kübler & Georg Weizsäcker, 2013.
"Preference for Randomization: Empirical and Experimental Evidence,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2013-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Dwenger, Nadja & Kübler, Dorothea & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2013. "Preference for randomization: Empirical and experimental evidence," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2013-201, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
- Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
- David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978.
"Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
- Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
- Eichberger, Jurgen & Kelsey, David, 2000. "Non-Additive Beliefs and Strategic Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 183-215, February.
- Dominiak, Adam & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2010.
"Attitudes towards Uncertainty and Randomization: An Experimental Study,"
0494, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Adam Dominiak & Wendelin Schnedler, 2011. "Attitudes toward uncertainty and randomization: an experimental study," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 289-312, October.
- David Schmeidler, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7662, David K. Levine.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- Mukerji Sujoy & Shin Hyun Song, 2002.
"Equilibrium Departures from Common Knowledge in Games with Non-Additive Expected Utility,"
The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-30, June.
- Mukerji, S. & Song Shin, H., 1997. "Equilibrium Departures From Common Knowledge in Games With Non-Additive Expected Utility," Economics Papers 137, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fran Walker).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.