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Predicting Land Use Change: How Much Does Transportation Matter?

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Author Info
Michael Iacono
David Levinson () (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the inßuence of transportation systems on land use change. Using a set of high-resolution land use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of land use change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing land use types, neighboring land uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a speciÞc location. The models are esti- mated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their inßuence. We Þnd (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some inßuence on changes to land use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring land uses.

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File URL: http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/PredictingLandUseChange.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 000045.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in working paper
Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:predictinglandusechange

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Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
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Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
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Related research
Keywords: Land use; Twin Cities (Minnesota); Mathematical models; urban growth;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
R41 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
R48 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Government Pricing; Regulatory Policies
D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xia Li, 2002. "A cellular automata model to simulate development density for urban planning," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(3), pages 431-450, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tenley M Conway, 2005. "Current and future patterns of land-use change in the coastal zone of New Jersey," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 32(6), pages 877-893, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2007. "Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth," Working Papers 200708, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2004. "Paving New Ground," Working Papers 200509, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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