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Predicting Land Use Change: How Much Does Transportation Matter?

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  • Michael Iacono
  • David Levinson

    ()
    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to measure the extent of the inßuence of transportation systems on land use change. Using a set of high-resolution land use data for the Twin Cities metropolitan region, we estimate logistic regression models of land use change covering a 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. The models account for existing land use types, neighboring land uses, and transportation network variables that measure the physical proximity of highway networks, as well as the level of accessibility associated with a speciÞc location. The models are esti- mated with and without the transportation variables and compared to assess the extent of their inßuence. We Þnd (perhaps not surprisingly) that transportation-related variables exert some inßuence on changes to land use patterns, though not as much as variables representing existing and neighboring land uses.

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File URL: http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/PredictingLandUseChange.pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 200911.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in Transportation Research Record 2119: 130-136
Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:predictinglandusechange

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Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Phone: +01 (612) 625-6354
Fax: +01 (612) 626-7750
Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
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Related research

Keywords: Land use; Twin Cities (Minnesota); Mathematical models; urban growth;

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References

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  1. Tenley M Conway, 2005. "Current and future patterns of land-use change in the coastal zone of New Jersey," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 32(6), pages 877-893, November.
  2. Peter H Verburg & Jan R Ritsema van Eck & Ton C M de Nijs & Martin J Dijst & Paul Schot, 2004. "Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(1), pages 125-150, January.
  3. Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xia Li, 2002. "A cellular automata model to simulate development density for urban planning," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(3), pages 431-450, May.
  4. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2004. "Paving New Ground," Working Papers 200509, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  5. David Levinson & Wei Chen, 2007. "Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth," Working Papers 200708, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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