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IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?

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  • Michelle Lowry
  • G. William Schwert

Abstract

We examine the strong cycles in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) and in the average initial returns realized by investors who participated in the IPOs. At the aggregate level, initial returns are predictably related to past initial returns and also to future IPO volume from 1960-1997. To understand these patterns, we use firm-level data from 1985-97 to model the initial return. Our results show that aggregate IPO cycles occur because of the time it takes to complete an IPO, the clustering of similar types of IPOs in time, and information spillovers among IPOs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7935.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Publication status: published as Lowry, Michelle and G. William Schwert. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles Or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, 2002, v57(3,Jun), 1171-1200.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7935

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  1. Dunbar, Craig G., 1998. "The Choice between Firm-Commitment and Best-Efforts Offering Methods in IPOs: The Effect of Unsuccessful Offers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 60-90, January.
  2. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
  3. Pagano, Marco & Panetta, Fabio & Zingales, Luigi, 1996. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1332, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  5. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2001. "Biases in the IPO Pricing Process," NBER Working Papers 8586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 1993. "The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-250, October.
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  13. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
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  16. Beatty, Randolph P. & Ritter, Jay R., 1986. "Investment banking, reputation, and the underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 213-232.
  17. Koh, Francis & Walter, Terry, 1989. "A direct test of Rock's model of the pricing of unseasoned issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 251-272, August.
  18. Carter, Richard B & Manaster, Steven, 1990. " Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1045-67, September.
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