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IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?

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Author Info
Michelle Lowry
G. William Schwert

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Abstract

We examine the strong cycles in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) and in the average initial returns realized by investors who participated in the IPOs. At the aggregate level, initial returns are predictably related to past initial returns and also to future IPO volume from 1960-1997. To understand these patterns, we use firm-level data from 1985-97 to model the initial return. Our results show that aggregate IPO cycles occur because of the time it takes to complete an IPO, the clustering of similar types of IPOs in time, and information spillovers among IPOs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7935.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Publication status: published as Lowry, Michelle and G. William Schwert. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles Or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, 2002, v57(3,Jun), 1171-1200.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7935

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure
G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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  1. Jean Helwege & Nellie Liang, 1996. "Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Choe, Hyuk & Masulis, Ronald W. & Nanda, Vikram, 1993. "Common stock offerings across the business cycle : Theory and evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-31, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Megginson, William L & Weiss, Kathleen A, 1991. " Venture Capitalist Certification in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 879-903, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
  5. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stoughton, Neal M & Wong, Kit Pong & Zechner, Josef, 2001. "IPOs and Product Quality," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(3), pages 375-408, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bayless, Mark & Chaplinsky, Susan, 1996. " Is There a Window of Opportunity for Seasoned Equity Issuance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 253-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2001. "Biases in the IPO Pricing Process," NBER Working Papers 8586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Carter, Richard B & Manaster, Steven, 1990. " Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1045-67, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 1993. "The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-250, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pagano, Marco & Panetta, Fabio & Zingales, Luigi, 1996. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1332, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Dunbar, Craig G., 1998. "The Choice between Firm-Commitment and Best-Efforts Offering Methods in IPOs: The Effect of Unsuccessful Offers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 60-90, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Koh, Francis & Walter, Terry, 1989. "A direct test of Rock's model of the pricing of unseasoned issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 251-272, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Randolph P. Beatty & Jay R. Ritter, . "Investment Banking, Reputation and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  20. Roger G. Ibbotson & Jody L. Sindelar & Jay R Ritter, 1994. "The Market'S Problems With The Pricing Of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(1), pages 66-74. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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