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Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets

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  • Jean Helwege
  • Nellie Liang
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    Abstract

    Asymmetric information models characterize hot IPO markets as periods when better quality firms have an incentive to issue equity, and cold markets when the lemons premium associated with equity is too high to draw in many issuers. Recent empirical evidence, however, suggests that firms that issue in hot markets are a major source of stock price underperformance of equity issuers. We investigate these opposing views with data on IPO firms that issued in 1983, a hot market, and 1988, a cold market. We find that the two sets of firms have similar operating performance, but stock returns are worse for firms that went public in the hot market. Our results are largely consistent with investor overoptimism in hot markets, but not with the asymmetric information models.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 96-34.

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    Date of creation: 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-34

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    Related research

    Keywords: Stock - Prices;

    References

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    1. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December.
    2. George W. Fenn & Nellie Liang & Stephen Prowse, 1995. "The economics of the private equity market," Staff Studies 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1990. " Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1019-43, September.
    4. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
    5. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. " The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-50, December.
    6. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
    7. Bayless, Mark & Chaplinsky, Susan, 1996. " Is There a Window of Opportunity for Seasoned Equity Issuance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 253-78, March.
    8. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September.
    9. Grinblatt, Mark & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1989. " Signalling and the Pricing of New Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 393-420, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, 06.
    2. Hoffmann-Burchardi, Ulrike, 2001. "Clustering of initial public offerings, information revelation and underpricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 353-383, February.
    3. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2005. "The illusion of over-optimism in survey data: the case of manufacturers' selling prices," The Journal of Socio-Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 151-159, March.
    4. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    5. Brailsford, Tim & Heaney, Richard & Shi, Jing, 2004. "Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-132.
    6. Richard J. Rosen, 2006. "Merger Momentum and Investor Sentiment: The Stock Market Reaction to Merger Announcements," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 987-1017, March.
    7. Michael Stolpe, 2004. "Non-Market Interaction in Primary Equity Markets: Evidence from France and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1211, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    8. Salim Chahine & Jean-Pierre Mathieu, 2003. "Valorisation stratégique par contextes de valeur:le cas des introductions sur le Nouveau marché," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 6(2), pages 91-114, June.

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