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Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Some "Weighty" Issues

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  • Gordon M. Bodnar
  • M.H. Franco Wong

Abstract

From a sample of 910 U.S. firms over the period 1977 1996, we find that structure of the empirical model has significant impacts on resulting estimates of exchange rate exposures from equity returns. While lengthening the return horizon has minimal impact on exposure estimates, the inclusion of a market portfolio in the specification results in significant changes to the exposure estimates. We further demonstrate that different definitions of the market portfolio result in important differences in the overall distribution of exposure estimates and the interpretations of the sign, size, and significance of many firms' exposures. The source of the exposure differences across market portfolios is due to a strong size-exposure relation for U.S. firms. Surprisingly, this size-exposure relation does not appear to be driven by an underlying correlation between size and foreign cash flow position of the firms. An alternative model specification using matched CRSP capital-based size portfolios as controls for market movements in the exposure model produces firm-level exposures with a stronger relation to foreign cash flows and less of a correlation with firm size.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7497.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Publication status: published as Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2003. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7497

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  1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
  8. Stulz, René M., 1984. "Optimal Hedging Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 127-140, June.
  9. Hodder, James E., 1982. "Exposure to exchange-rate movements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3-4), pages 375-386, November.
  10. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
  11. Smith, Clifford W. & Stulz, René M., 1985. "The Determinants of Firms' Hedging Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 391-405, December.
  12. Juann Hung, 1992. "Assessing the exchange rate's impact on U.S. manufacturing profits," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 44-63.
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