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Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Some "Weighty" Issues

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Author Info
Gordon M. Bodnar
M.H. Franco Wong
Abstract

From a sample of 910 U.S. firms over the period 1977 1996, we find that structure of the empirical model has significant impacts on resulting estimates of exchange rate exposures from equity returns. While lengthening the return horizon has minimal impact on exposure estimates, the inclusion of a market portfolio in the specification results in significant changes to the exposure estimates. We further demonstrate that different definitions of the market portfolio result in important differences in the overall distribution of exposure estimates and the interpretations of the sign, size, and significance of many firms' exposures. The source of the exposure differences across market portfolios is due to a strong size-exposure relation for U.S. firms. Surprisingly, this size-exposure relation does not appear to be driven by an underlying correlation between size and foreign cash flow position of the firms. An alternative model specification using matched CRSP capital-based size portfolios as controls for market movements in the exposure model produces firm-level exposures with a stronger relation to foreign cash flows and less of a correlation with firm size.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7497.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7497

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  10. Christine R Hekman, 1985. "A Financial Model of Foreign Exchange Exposure," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 83-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Sohnke M. Bartram & G. Andrew Karolyi, 2002. "The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposures," Finance 0207005, EconWPA, revised 16 Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ila Patnaik, 2009. "Does the Currency Regime Shape Unhedged Currency Exposure?," Working Papers id:2049, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kathryn M.E Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "A Re-Examination of Exchange Rate Exposure," Working Papers 465, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jose Luiz Rossi Junior, 2004. "Foreign Exchange exposure, corporate financial policies and the exchange rate regime: Evidence from Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 163, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2002. "Foreign Exchange Exposure and Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia," Working Papers 172002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Cheap Labor Meets Costly Capital: The Impact of Devaluations on Commodity Firms," NBER Working Papers 9053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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