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Complementarities and Comovements

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  • John Shea

Abstract

Short-run interindustry comovement may be due either to common shocks or to complementarities that propagate shocks across sectors. This paper assesses the importance of input-output linkages, aggregate activity spillovers, and local activity spillovers to comovement in postwar US manufacturing. I find that input-output linkages and local activity spillovers are important to comovement, while aggregate activity spillovers are not important. I find that complementarities are important to aggregate volatility, even after I remove observable aggregate shocks from the data. Local spillovers are particularly important, explaining between 15 and 36 percent of manufacturing employment volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5305.

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Date of creation: Oct 1995
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Publication status: published as Shea, John S. "Complementarities And Comovements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, v34(2,May), 412-434.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5305

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  1. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1993. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," NBER Working Papers 4577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1994. "Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?," International Finance Discussion Papers 463, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. John Shea, 1995. "Comovement in Cities," NBER Working Papers 5304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Building Blocks of Market Clearing Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 3004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Scholarly Articles 3606235, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  7. Bartelsman, Eric J & Caballero, Ricardo J & Lyons, Richard K, 1994. "Customer- and Supplier-Driven Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1075-84, September.
  8. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1990. "Sources of output fluctuations in the United States during the inter-war and post-war years," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 523-551, October.
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  12. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  13. Shea, John, 1993. "The Input-Output Approach to Instrument Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 145-55, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  2. Pozzolo, A.F., 1998. "Research and Development, Regional Spillovers, and the Location of Economic Activities," Papers 331, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," NBER Working Papers 14389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nadezhda Malysheva & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2009. "Heterogeneity in sectoral employment and the business cycle," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 335-355.

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